EM LATAM CREDIT: Argentina: Regional Government Debt Issuance - Neutral
(ARGENT; Caa1/CCC/CCC+)
"Buenos Aires City, Santa Fe Weigh Bond Sales Inbetween Elections" - Bbg
Best in class City of Buenos Aires (BUEAIR; B2/B-/B-) and significant industrial Province of Santa Fe (PROVSF; B3/NR/B-) are considering international bond issuances after the Province of Buenos Aires legislature elections this Sunday but before the October national legislative elections October 26, 2025.
If the ruling political party LLA (La Libertad Avanza) is successful in picking up a significant number of available seats in the legislature this Sunday then it is possible investor sentiment will be sufficient to support new issues.
President Milei's party is significantly outnumbered in the Congress so winning seats is both necessary to accelerate reforms as well as show confidence in the direction the country is going ahead of Presidential elections in 2027.
The Province of Buenos Aires has about 37% of the national electorate as the country's most populous province so its a good litmus test for the national legislature elections the following month. It is also historically an opposition party Peronist stronghold so a meaningful win there would be a strong signal.
PROVSF 27s were last quoted at 8.49% yield to avg life while BUEAIR 2027 were quoted at 6.98% yield to avg life. ARGENT 35s were last quoted 61.93, up .49 on the day.
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EURGBP TECHS: Rebound Signals A Bullish Turn
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8704 @ 17:17 BST Aug 4
- SUP 1: 0.8611 Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: 0.8587 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27
The trend set-up in EURGBP is bullish and the latest recovery from Thursday's low signals the end of the short corrective pullback between Jul 28 - 31. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA 0.8587. A clear break of it would strengthen a bear threat.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Over $14.5B To Price Monday
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 08/04 $3.25B #Barclays $1.5B 4.25NC3.25 +83, $500M 4.25NC3.25 SOFR+108, $1.25B 21NC10 +110
- 08/04 $2B #FISERV $1B +5Y +87, $1B 10Y +107
- 08/04 $2B Level 3 Financing 8.5NC3 7%, upsized from $1.25B
- 08/04 $1.525B #Dominion Energy $825M 30.5NC5.25 6%, $700M 30.5NC10.25 6.2%
- 08/04 $1.5B #Quanta Services $500M Each: 3Y +65, +5Y +80, 10Y +93
- 08/04 $1.25B Level 3 Financing 8.5NC3
- 08/04 $1B #Altria $500M 5Y +85, $500M 10Y +112
- 08/04 $700M #Kentucky Utilities 30Y +105
- 08/04 $700M #Louisville Gas & Electric 30Y +105
- 08/04 $600M #CenterPoint Houston 10Y +80
- 08/04 $Benchmark KKR & Co. 10Y +93
- 08/04 $Benchmark Chub Holdings 10Y +70
- 08/04 $Benchmark Public Service of Colorado 10Y +97, 2055 Tap +102
US: Americans See Democatic Party As "Weak"And "Ineffective" - AP-NORC
A new AP-NORC survey has found that “Many Democrats see their political party as “weak” or “ineffective,”” while, “Republicans are more complimentary of their party, although a small but significant share describe the GOP as “greedy” or say it is generally “bad.””
- AP notes: “Overall, U.S. adults held a dim view of both parties, with about 4 in 10 using negative attributes, including words such as “dishonest” or “stupid.””
- The survey is likely to temper optimism that lukewarm approval of President Donald Trump's policies will presage a major swing towards Democrats at the 2026 midterm elections.
- While Gallup reported in a survey last week, "Americans’ party affiliation has flipped back toward the Democratic Party after the Republican Party held advantages for most of 2023 and 2024," the outlet noted "these changes in party preference are occurring at a time when the Democratic Party’s image is at an all-time low and slightly worse than that of the Republican Party."
Figure 1: “Percentage of Democrats who used words to describe the Democratic Party that were categorized as negative, positive, or another category”
Source: AP
