EM LATAM CREDIT: Argentina Policy Rate Cut

• RES 4: 115-00+ High Oct 1 ‘24 (cont) 
• RES 3: 114-21+ 1.00 proj of the Aug 18 - Sep 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont) and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 114-02   High Oct 17 
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-26 @ 16:14 BST Oct 21
• SUP 1: 113-01+ 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112-30   Low Oct 13 
• SUP 3: 112-21   50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 112-06   Low Sep 25 and a reversal trigger

A bull cycle in Treasuries remains intact. Last week’s rally resulted in a breach of key resistance at 113-29, the Sep 11 high. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this set-up continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont) and the next key resistance. Firm support lies at 113-01+, the 20-day EMA. 

Despite polling suggesting that Republicans are shouldering slightly more blame than Democrats for the ongoing government shutdown, President Donald Trump's approval rating has improved steadily throughout the shutdown. 

• According to the Silver Bulletin polling aggregator, Trump's net approval rating has strengthened by roughly two percentage points since October 1. Trump's approval rating on all the key issues has also strengthened. Most notably, Trump's approval on inflation, which remains his worst issue, has risen from -33% to -26%.
• Silver Bulletin notes that, "while Trump absolutely is unpopular, his overall approval rating isn’t unusually low. At this point, he’s not doing much worse than Biden was in 2021."
• One potential takeaway is that Trump may be less inclined to insert himself into negotiations to end the shutdown. Senate Democrats are gambling that polling pressure and concern that future political fallout from rising healthcare prices, if Obamacare subsidies are allowed to lapse, will compel Trump to flank Congressional Republicans by striking a deal with Democrats. 

Figure 1: President Donald Trump Approval Rating

Source: Silver Bulletin 

European equity futures moving higher at typing, roughly coinciding with headlines on China/EU trade relations:

• “CHINA SAYS IT OFFERS CONVENIENCE TO EU COS AMID EXPORT CONTROLS” Bloomberg
• “CHINA HOPES EU WILL PLAY ROLE IN RESOLVING NEXPERIA ISSUE” Bloomberg
• “*CHINA, EU TO HOLD EXPORT CONTROL DIALOGUE IN BRUSSELS” Bloomberg

Stoxx50 futures now up 0.2% on the session at 5,708, but today’s session high of 5,717 remains untested for now.