OIL: Argentina Nearing 853 kb/d Crude Oil Production Thanks to Shale

• Treasuries extend late session lows after FT cited Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee saying he is
• "UNCOMFORTABLE OVERLY FRONTLOADING RATE CUTS" while we "STILL HAVE MOSTLY STEADY, SOLID JOBS MARKET...AT THE SAME TIME, INFLATION IS GOING THE WRONG WAY"
• Currently, the Dec'25 10Y trades -7 at 112-21 (yld 4.1447% +.0385) vs. 112-20 low - nearing technical support at 112-205/112-155 (Low Sep 22 / High Aug 5 and 14). Resistance above at 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger.
• Curves mildly steeper: 2s10s +2.868 at 54.666, 5s30s +.195 at 105.129.
• US$ index near highs, Bbg's BBDXY +6.56 at 1202.23. 

• Crude has seen further support today from an EU plan to tariff imports of Russian oil, additional disruption to Russian energy infrastructure, and a tariff agreement between the US and EU.
• WTI Nov 25 is up by 2.5% at $65.0/bbl.
• Despite this move, the trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high, with key short-term resistance defined at $68.43, the Jul 30 high.
• A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.50, the May 30 low.
• Meanwhile, gold has pulled back today from yesterday's all-time high, as the steady appreciation of the US dollar to fresh recovery highs has weighed on the yellow metal.
• Spot gold is down by 0.9% at $3,729/oz.
• Gold is still in a clear bull cycle and shallow short-term pullbacks remain corrective. The next objective is the $3,800.0 handle. Initial firm support lies at $3,621.4, the 20-day EMA.
• Elsewhere, copper has rallied by 3.9% today to $482/lb, after Freeport declared force majeure at a key mine in Indonesia.
• Freeport said that suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine, the second largest source of the metal, following a deadly mud rush will reduce near-term copper and gold output.
• Today’s rally has seen copper pierce initial resistance at $475.14, the 50-day EMA, a clear break of which would open $550.00, the Jul 9 and Jul 28 lows.

• RES 4: 114-12  1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 2: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-29+ @ 11:12 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 112-20+/112-15+ Low Sep 22 / High Aug 5  and 14 
• SUP 2: 112-10   50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

The latest pullback in Treasury futures appears corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112.10 and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.