EM LATAM CREDIT: Argentina: May Inflation Beats Expectations - Positive

SOFR & Treasury option volumes gradually improved, flow still mixed, however as underlying futures scaled off early morning highs, projected rate cut pricing holds steady to mildly softer vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 steady at -2.1bp, Jul'25 steady at -9.8bp, Sep'25 -24.7bp (-26.8bp), Oct'25 -37.3bp (-40.3bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +5,000 0QU5 96.87/97.37/97.87 call flys, 6.0 vs. 96.59/0.10%
  • -12,500 SFRU6 96.87/SFRZ5 96.25 call spds, 13.0
  • +10,000 SFRU5 95.62/95.75/95.87 put flys, 3.0 ref 95.935
  • Update, screen/Block over +22,000 SFRU5 95.81/SFRZ5 95.75 put spds, 1.0-1.5 net
  • +10,000 0QN5 96.87/97.00 call spds, 3.0 ref 96.615
  • Block, 6,660 SFRU5 95.81/SFRZ5 95.75 put spds, 1.0 net
  • -4,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.25/96.50 call flys, 3.0 ref 95.965
  • +5,500 SFRU5/SFRZ5 98.00 call spds 1.75 net (Dec over)
  • Block, 5,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 95.68/95.87 put spd spds, 3.0 net/Sep over
  • Block, 5,000 0QM5 96.12/96.31 put spds, 3.5 ref 96.53
  • 4,000 SFRN5 96.68/96.87 call spds ref 95.965
  • 13,500 SFRM5 95.62 puts ref 95.70 to -.705
  • 3,900 SFRM5 95.68/95.81/95.93 call flys ref 95.70
  • 2,000 0QK5 96.81 puts ref 96.545
  • 2,500 0QZ5 97.75/98.00/99.25/100.0 broken call condors ref 96.605
  • 1,500 SFRZ5 96.75/97.00/97.12 broken call flys ref 96.225
  • 5,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.87/96.00 call flys ref 95.705
• Treasury Options:
  • -10,000 FVM5 107.75 puts, 28.5-28.0
  • 6,100 TYM5 110 straddles, 56 ref 110-02
  • 3,000 TYN5 107/109 put spds ref 110-04.5
  • +4,000 TYM5 109.75/110.5 strangles, 35 (5.91% iv)
  • -20,000 TYM5 109.5 puts, 10
  • +6,900 TUU5 103 puts, 11.5-12
  • over 40,000 TYM5 108/109 put spds, 5 ref 110-06.5
  • Block, 20,000 TYN5 108/109 put spds 14 ref 110-09.5
  • Block/screen, 30,000 FVN5 106.5/107 put spds
  • over 13,800 FVM5 109 calls, 2.5 last
  • over 10,000 TYM5 109.5/111 strangles
  • 2,000 TYM5 109/110 put spds, 19 ref 110-07
  • 2,500 TUN5 103.75/104 call spds vs. 103.12 puts ref 103-20.12
  • 2,000 TYM5 109.5/110/111 broken put flys ref 110-08.5

• RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug ‘24 sell-off 
• RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance          
• RES 2: 166.14 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
• RES 1: 165.43 High Nov 8 2024
• PRICE: 165.11 @ 16:56 GMT May 13
• SUP 1: 162.80 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 161.99/60 50-day EMA / Low May 6
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

A bullish theme in EURJPY strengthened Tuesday with the break above the late Dec high. These gains reinforce a bullish condition and paves the way for a climb towards 165.43, the Nov 8 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 161.99, the 50-day EMA. 

• -10,000 FVM5 107.75 puts, 28.5-28.0