EM LATAM CREDIT: ARGENTINA: IMF Support , Aug CPI Inflation Due

Sep-10 12:25

From MNI EM Markets Analyst:
ARGENTINA: IMF Continuing To Support Government Reform Agenda, Aug CPI Inflation Due

• Amid the mounting pressure on the government following the weekend’s Buenos Aires provincial election result, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack has posted to X to say that the IMF supports the government’s continued adherence to the fiscal anchor and its comprehensive deregulation agenda. She said that IMF staff are engaging with the authorities in Argentina as they implement their programme for entrenching stability and improving the country’s growth prospects.
• Her comments follow President Milei’s remarks after the surprising scale of his party’s defeat on Sunday, when he reiterated his commitment to his reform agenda, vowing to continue with his FX, monetary and fiscal policies without change.
• Today, attention will also turn to August CPI inflation data at 2000BST(1500ET), where consensus is for headline prices to rise by 2.00% m/m (vs. +1.90% in July), bringing the annual rate of inflation down to 33.7% y/y.
o Aug. National CPI YoY, est. 33.70%, prior 36.60%
o Aug. National CPI MoM est. 2.00%, prior 1.90%
• According to last week’s BCRA economist survey, CPI inflation is expected to end this year at 28.2% y/y, up from 27.3% seen in July and a low of 27.0% in June. Monthly inflation is expected to moderate from around 2% currently to 1.6% by November.

Historical bullets

EGBS: Off Lows, Ranges Remain Tight

Aug-11 12:23

Bund futures stabilised in front of intermediate support at last Monday’s low (129.50) before recovering to ~129.70 in recent trade. 

  • Macro headline flow has been light over the last couple of hours, with recent social media posts from U.S. President Trump focused on combating crime and the implementation of tariffs, providing little new for markets to trade off.
  • German yields are essentially unchanged across the curve.
  • EGB spreads to Bunds are flat on the day.

GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 11-17 August

Aug-11 12:06

Download Full Report Here

(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change.

Monday 11 August:

  • EU-Ukraine: An emergency videoconference of EU foreign ministers has been convened by High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas to discuss the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin (see entry below). EU leaders have sought to convince Trump to invite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Alaska summit, but to no avail so far. Foreign ministers will also discuss the situation in the Middle East, with a focus on the situation in Gaza. Due to start at 16:00CET (10:00ET, 15:00BST).

SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer tomorrow

Aug-11 12:01

Tesoro Publico has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E2.0-3.0bln of the following at its auction tomorrow, August 12:

  • the 3-month Nov 7, 2025 letras
  • the 9-month May 8, 2026 letras