EM LATAM CREDIT: Argentina: Further Fiscal Adjustment - Positive

Jun-20 14:03

(Caa3pos/CCC/CCC+)

"Caputo Says True Milei Ordered Further Fiscal Adjustment" - Bbg / El Cronista

President Milei sought to improve the fiscal surplus further, ordering ministers to make further fiscal adjustments as reported by local news outlet El Cronista and confirmed by Economy Minister Luis Caputo according to Bloomberg.

We posted a few days ago on the latest primary surplus reported by the government:
https://mni.marketnews.com/3HPS1UK

Milei reportedly wants to get to 1.6% of GDP. The IMF specified a minimum of 1.25% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026. Through April we calculated the primary surplus was nearly 1% so the government does seem to be on track already.

ARGENT 2035s were last quoted USD65.73, 3 points higher QTD and down a point YTD.

Historical bullets

STIR: Natixis Recommend Receiving Sep '25 ECB-Dated OIS

May-21 13:53

Natixis recommend receiving Sep ’25 ECB-dated OIS, targeting a move to 167bp, with a stop set at 183bp (177bp last).

  • They note that “in addition to the de-escalation of trade tensions, the market has recently adopted the 'steady hand policy' of Schnabel, which involves integrating a potential ECB terminal rate at 2.00%”.
  • Natixis see a higher probability of the ECB going below 2.00% by September (rather than halting at 2.00%) for several reasons, namely broader macro weakness, inflation expectations, higher risk of a hard landing for the U.S. than the market prices at present and expectations for a continued weakening of wage growth.

BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: Gilts Very Long Going Into Quarterly Roll

May-21 13:51

We've published our latest Europe Pi positioning update - Download Full Document Here

  • Long structural positioning has shown some signs of fading over the course of May, though there still aren't any outright shorts across European bond futures contracts, with multiple "longs".
  • The quarterly Gilt roll has begun, with the contract in "very long" territory (first notice is May 29 and there is a holiday Monday so rolls have started on the early side;  for Eurex it's June 6).
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Source: Eurex, ICE, BBG, MNI Calculations

SONIA: Large Package Option

May-21 13:44

SFIZ5 95.50/96.00/96.50c fly vs 97.00/96.50ps 1x2, sold the fly at -15 in 18.5k.