EM LATAM CREDIT: Argentina: CPI Better than Expected - Positive
(ARGENT; Caa1/CCC/CCC+)
"Argentina Aug. Consumer Prices Rise 1.9% M/m, Est. +2.00%
Consumer prices rose 33.6% y/y (estimate +33.70%) versus +36.6% in July" - Bbg
While this is only marginally better than expected, we think this is good news as there was probably a whisper number that might have been higher due to fears of FX depreciation pass through to inflation.
It seems the govt may be on the right track in managing the money supply and maintaining fiscal restraint which is offsetting any negative effects from ARS weakening.
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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Travel CPI Categories Perhaps Less Sequentially Soft In July
[The below is a small section on latest travel demand in the US from the MNI US CPI Preview ahead of Tuesday's CPI report for July]
- Travel-related prices have been a source of generally larger than expected disinflationary pressure in recent months, although some travel data crudely suggest we might have seen the peak for this sequentially.
- TSA checkpoint numbers have returned closer to last year’s seasonal pattern after some weakness in prior months.
- APIS data meanwhile have stabilized at low Y/Y rates with US citizens returning rising 3.6% Y/Y in July (after 1.4% Y/Y in June or 3% Y/Y averaged since February) and foreign originating flights -4.9% Y/Y (after -6.6% Y/Y in June or -5% Y/Y since February).
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 171.70 @ 15:31 BST Aug 11
- SUP 1: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 2: 169.62 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.62. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.
BONDS: Europe Pi: BTPs Stay Long, Gilts Short, OATs Flat (2/2)
Elsewhere in Europe Pi:
- OAT remains in flat territory, where it has been almost the entire year. Last week's trade was indicative of reduced longs.
- Gilt structural positioning remains in short territory. There were some longs set last week, however.
- BTP continues to edge further into "very long" territory. Indeed, trade indicative of further long-setting was seen in the most recent week.
