EM LATAM CREDIT: Argentina (ARGENT; Caa3pos/CCC/CCC): Unemployment Rate
“Argentina 4Q Unemployment Rate Falls to 6.4%”- BBG
Neutral for bond prices
• Another positive sign for the Argentina economy with the unemployment rate dropping again to 6.4%, from 6.9% in 3Q and down from 7.6% in 2Q.
• In 2023 the unemployment rate was 6.1% according to the World Bank, which was prior to President Milei’s sharp reduction in fiscal expenditures to balance the budget in 2024 which may have caused rising unemployment.
• Unemployment is nearly the lowest it’s been for the past 20 years.
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US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: ON RRP Takeup Bounces Sharply From Multiyear Lows
Overnight reverse repo facility takeup bounced sharply Tuesday, rising $19.0B (most since Jan 31) vs Friday to $77.8B.
- That's the highest level since Feb 10 and for the moment brings takeup above the post-April 2021 lows set last week ($58.8B on Friday).
- Takeup is expected to remain steady from here/head higher toward end-month.
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US: Dip In Trump's Approval Rating Could Complicate Legislation
US President Donald Trump has seen a modest dip in approval since taking office on January 20. According to 538’s approval tracker, Trump currently has a net approval rate of +4.0%, down from +8.2% in late January.
- The dip is approval is likely due to a dip in moderate and soft-Democratic support that helped power Trump’s popular vote victory in November. In particular, several surveys have noted that special advisor Elon Musk and his affiliated Department of Government Efficiency have been poorly received by voters.
- An Economist survey published last week found, “Just 39 percent of adults under 30-years-old… reported a favorable opinion of Trump. That number stood at 50 percent just two weeks ago.”
- Should Trump’s approval dip further, it may impact the decision-making of Congressional Republicans ahead of a critical period for Trump’s agenda in Congress. All legislation in Congress will require the near-unanimous support of House Republicans. Any signal from voters that plans to cut welfare programmes like Medicaid will put moderates or those representing districts with a high proportion of welfare recipients in a challenging position.
Figure 1: Donald Trump Approval Rating
Source: 538
