EM LATAM CREDIT: Argentina (ARGENT; Caa3pos/CCC/CCC): Feb. Inflation Preview
“The National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) will announce February inflation today, and it is estimated that it could not break January’s 2.2% due to the rise in meat prices.” – Infobae
Neutral for prices
• The market consensus is 2.3% for the month of February, a bit higher than the 2.2% reported for January with food and beverages noticeably higher while on an annual basis inflation is expected to be 66.8%, down significantly from 84.5% last month.
• It is expected that meat and fruit drove overall prices for food up 3.3% the highest since July 2024 according to consulting firm C&T Asesores Economicos.
• We don’t see a monthly tick up in inflation due to volatility in some food groups as worrisome. Policies such as free market reforms, maintaining stable FX rates and encouraging investment will be supportive of disinflation in the longer run.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
MNI: Riksbank Deputy Governor Aino Bunge speaks about policy
Riksbank Deputy Governor Aino Bunge speaks about policy and the krona's varying inflation pass-through -On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
US: House Unveils Budget Resolution, Includes Debt Ceiling Hike
The House of Representatives has unveiled a budget resolution, kicking off the reconciliation process to legislate President Donald Trump's agenda.
- The resolution includes $4.5 trillion for the House Way and Means Committee to write up Trump's tax agenda, including the extension of 2017 tax cuts and potentially new reforms to cover campaign pledges like exempting tipped earnings from tax.
- The resolution aims to "reduce mandatory spending by $2 trillion over the budget window" setting floors for various departments to decrease the federal deficit including $880B for the Department of Energy and Commerce, $330B for the Department of Education, and $230B for the Department of Agriculture. The extent of proposed cuts suggests Medicaid reform will be required, potentially clashing with Trump's pledge to protect entitlement programmes.
- The spending levels allotted for tax reform are lower than called for by Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO), suggesting that House Republicans will seek further offsets over the coming weeks, this may include codifying tariff revenue or spending cuts identified by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
- Notably, the resolution also includes a $4 trillion hike to the federal debt limit, a risky gambit that ties Trump's agenda to one of the most intractable political issues in Congress, which requires near-unanimous GOP support to pass the House.
- The House Budget Committee is expected to markup the resolution tomorrow with Johnson eyeing a full House vote by the end of the month. Passing the Budget committee will be the first major test of Trump's influence over Congress. Several hardline deficit hawks, including Rep Chip Roy (R-TX) and Ralph Norman (R-SC), sit on the panel.
- Once an identical resolution is passed by both the House and Senate, work can begin on the legislative text of a reconciliation package for Trump's agenda.
US SWAPS: Spds Wider As Powell Flags Potential SLR Tweak & Tsy Liquidity Worry
Fed Chair Powell says that he believes the central bank will take another look at the SLR rule, alongside concerns surrounding Treasury liquidity.
- Delayed, contained widening in long dated swap spreads following the comments.
- A reminder that Governor Bowman (a favourite to succeed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr) triggered widening in long end swap spreads last week, as she pointed to a preference regulatory tweaks.
- 10-YEar swap spread through last week's high.
- 30-Year swap spread less than 0.5bp off last week's high.
