Crude prices remain underpinned after registering strong gains so far this week, despite the bounce in the USD.
- Our commodities team note that oil prices pushed above the recent range after U.S. President Trump outlined the new early August deadline for a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire.
- Looking forwards, focus is on the risk of supply disruption from further sanctions on Russian oil, but President Trump doesn’t appear concerned about supply matters, suggesting the U.S. will increase its oil output to counter any related disruptions.
- Elsewhere, OPEC is expected to increase its production target for September at its August 3 meeting. Many analysts expected the rise to lead to a market oversupply later this year and into 2026.