EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Aramco: IPTs $ BM 5Y & 10Y Sukuk

Cash Tsys open around levels indicated by futures after closure during Asia hours owing to the observance of a Japanese holiday.

• Yields ~1.5bp lower across the curve.
• Familiar themes continue to dominate, with Fed succession and clear divides in views surrounding the end of the Russia-Ukraine war front and centre early this week. 

July CPI-ATE at 3.12% Y/Y is higher than expected by consensus (3.0% Y/Y) but in line with Norges Bank's June MPR projections. Headline CPI (3.27% Y/Y) sees a larger upward surprise.

• Norges Bank were already expected to hold rates on Thursday. This reading should cement those expectations.
• More to follow on the details, but at first glance this shouldn't have major impacts on Norges Bank's guidance in August. The broad trend of gradually reducing the policy rate is still intact.
• At the June press conference, Governor Wolden Bache said that the June MPR rate path was consistent with one or two more cuts this year. Analyst calculations on the rate path (and baseline forecasts) leant more towards 2x25bp cuts in September and December.
• There is still another CPI report due before the September 18 decision, alongside Q2 GDP, another Regional Network Survey, and plenty of labour market data.
• Some modest NOK strength following the release, with NOKSEK up just 10pips to 0.9311. This will likely set the tone for the cross through the session.

• MNI: NORWAY JUL UNDERLYING CPI +0.8% M/M, +3.1% Y/Y
• MNI: NORWAY JUL CPI +0.8% M/M, +3.3% Y/Y