EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Arab Energy Fund: Guidance out
Sep-03 10:40
"GUIDANCE: [APICORP] $Bmark Long 5Y SOFR MS + 80 Area (+/-5)" - BBG...
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Factory/Durable Goods Orders, Cap Goods
Aug-04 10:40
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/04 1000 Factory Orders (8.2%, -4.8%), Orders Ex Trans (0.2%, 0.2%)
- 08/04 1000 Durable Goods Orders (-9.3%, -9.3), Ex Trans (0.2%, 0.2%)
- 08/04 1000 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (-0.7%, --)
- 08/04 1000 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (0.4%, --)
- 08/04 1130 US Tsy $82B 13W, $73B 26W bill auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
BUNDS: Elevated buying interest Goes through
Aug-04 10:34
- Third best volume of the day goes through in Bund, around 20k cumulative volumes goes to the upside, the contract is now eyeing the Overnight printed high of 130.06.
- The best volume in Bund went through during the Equity Cash Open, and we noted some buying emerging 45 minutes ago.
- Friday's printed high post NFP is situated at 130.21 for German 10yr.
STIR: Bulk Of NFP Dovish Lurch Held, New Fed Governor In Coming Days
Aug-04 10:30
- Fed Funds implied rates have pared some of late Friday/early overnight dovish extremes but still hold the vast majority of the slide on Friday’s soft payrolls report.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 22bp Sep, 41bp Oct, 61.5bp Dec, 73bp Jan and 85bp Mar.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.045% (SFRH7) is 2bp higher on the day for still 20bp lower since payrolls.
- The 61bp of cuts to year-end compares with a median 50bp from June’s SEP. Considering the unemployment rate of 4.25% in July vs the 4.5% seen averaging in 4Q25 in those same projections, it shouldn’t be surprisingly that Friday’s first reaction to the payrolls report was measured:
- Hammack (’26 voter, hawk) said the US labor market still appears healthy, though fresh jobs numbers released Friday constituted a “disappointing report to be sure.”
- Bostic (non-voter) hasn’t changed his view that there should be just one rate cut this year.
- Fed Governor Kugler (permanent voter) resigned late on Friday, vacating her board of governors seat due to expire in January. “I am proud to have tackled this role with integrity, a strong commitment to serving the public, and with a data-driven approach strongly based on my expertise in labor markets and inflation.” It’s a surprise although she had missed last week’s FOMC meeting.
- Trump has said he’ll appoint a new Fed governor in the coming days, along with a new BLS commissioner after Friday’s extraordinary decision to fire McEntarfer after a weak report. See more on the latter from the MNI Policy Team at MNI INTERVIEW: Ex-Chief Says BLS Can Withstand Trump Pressure (Aug 1).
