US DATA: April Flash PMIs Disappoint Whilst Charge Inflation Accelerates

Apr-23 13:55
  • Manufacturing PMI: 50.7 (cons 49.0) in April flash after 50.2 in March.
  • Services PMI: 51.4 (cons 52.6) after 54.4 in March.
  • Composite PMI: 51.2 (cons 52.0) after 53.5 in March, hitting a 16-month low.
  • Highlights from the S&P Global PMI press release (in full here): "US business activity growth slowed to a 16-month low in April, according to flash PMI® survey data, with business expectations about the year ahead also dropping to one of the lowest levels seen since the pandemic. Prices charged for goods and services meanwhile rose at the sharpest rate for just over a year, with an especially steep increase reported for manufactured goods, linked to tariffs."

And specific detail on prices:

  • "Average prices charged for goods and services rose in April at the sharpest rate for 13 months, increasing especially steeply in manufacturing (where the rate of inflation hit a 29-month high) but also picking up further pace in services (where the rate of inflation struck a seven-month high).
  • Higher charges were attributed to rising costs, linked widely in turn to tariffs, rising import prices, and increased labor costs.
  • Input costs in the manufacturing sector rose at a pace not seen since August 2022, as suppliers pushed through price hikes linked to tariffs, supply concerns and a weakened exchange rate.
  • Service sector costs meanwhile rose at a slower rate than in March, though the increase was the second largest recorded over the past six months as higher raw material prices were accompanied by upward wage pressures."
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Source: S&P Global 

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: Post-Flash PMI React

Mar-24 13:53
  • Treasury futures extend lows after S&P Flash PMI services and composite data comes out higher then expected while manufacturing declines.
  • The Jun'25 10Y currently trades 110-21 (-14) vs. 110-20 low -- sitting on initial technical support, next level at 110-12+ Low Mar 6 & 13. Resistance above at 111-25 (Mar 11 high), support below at 110-12.5/110-00 (Low Mar 6 & 13 / High Feb 7).
  • Tsy 10Y yield climbs to 4.3153% high, curves still mixed: 2s10s +.472 at 29.864, 5s30s -1.851 at 56.572.

BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: Short Lean Extends Across Contracts

Mar-24 13:51

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  • Since the quarterly rolls at the turn of Feb/Mar, European bond futures contracts have leaned increasingly toward structural shorts.
  • 5 of 6 Eurex contracts tracked by MNI Pi are in either short or very short territory, with BTP the exception.
  • BTP, as well as Gilts, appear to be drifting toward the short side.  
  • Last week saw a combination of short covering and long-setting.

 

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USD: USDJPY is testing 150.00 post US PMIs

Mar-24 13:49
  • USDJPY makes an attempt at 150.00, while the US Mfg PMI missed expectations, Services and Composite saw strong beat.
  • Immediate resistance is still at 150.15/150.18.