PERU: April CPI Rises to 1.65%, Above Expectations
May-02 11:03
- On Thursday, Peru reported the CPI data for April which rose ahead of median expectations:
- Lima April Consumer Prices Rise 0.32% M/m, Est. +0.20%
- Lima April Consumer Prices Rise 1.65% Y/y, Est. +1.52%
- For reference, the BCRP Board’s next monetary policy session will take place on May 8. So far, two analysts within the Bloomberg survey expect the BCRP to extend the easing cycle pause, keeping the reference rate unchanged at 4.75%.
- *Goldman Sachs said despite the upside surprise, the inflation outlook remains benign and does not constitute an impediment to the delivery of at least another 25bp rate cut, which instead will likely be informed by the external backdrop.
- *JP Morgan note persistently low inflation should enable the central bank to ease monetary conditions, allowing domestic demand to absorb negative demand shocks from the global economy smoothly. If JPM’s forecast of a global recession, to which they assign a 60% probability, materializes, the BCRP would likely adopt a more accommodative stance. In line with their central view, the policy rate is expected to converge to 3% by the end of the year.
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DUTCH AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Apr-02 11:02
DSTA has announced it will be looking to sell E2.0-2.5bln of the 0.50% Jul-32 DSL (ISIN: NL0015000RP1) at its auction next Tuesday, April 8.
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.6% SA THRU MAR 28 WK
Apr-02 11:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -1.6% SA THRU MAR 28 WK
FRANCE: Gov't Revises Down Growth; Spox Says Tariffs Expected In 20-25% Range
Apr-02 10:51
Gov't spox Sophie Primas has said that the French administration is expecting "powerful" tariffs from US President Donald Trump, coming in the range of 20-25%. Primas' comments come as Minister Delegate for Labour and Employment Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet said on France 2 TV that instead of the 0.9% economic growth forecast in the budget just two months ago, “We are at more like 0.7%, which are the Bank of France forecasts, absolutely,”
- On 1 April, Finance Minister Eric Lombard, speaking to parliament, said regarding the looming impact of US tariffs, “We are indeed in a delicate economic situation, [...] We are being extremely careful to continue with measures of simplification and support for activity to confront these challenges.” He gave no indication of the exact details of any response.
- Further fiscal changes could put pressure on the minority gov't of PM Francois Bayrou. The 2025 budget, involving spending cuts and tax hikes, was already broadly unpopular with most of the main left-wing New Popular Front alliance and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally).
- Further measures intended to bolster France's fiscal outlook and avoid market jitters could spark more political backlash. A snap parliamentary election cannot take place until July. The febrile political atmosphere in France following the conviction of RN figurehead Marine Le Pen and the ban on her running for the presidency in 2027 could add to the gov'ts headaches. The RN has sometimes abstained on votes, allowing the gov't to remain in place. There is no guarantee this situation is maintained.
