GERMAN DATA: Apr Flash PMI: Tariff-related Impacts Apparent Across Sectors
The German April flash services PMI was weaker than expected at 48.8 (vs 50.2 cons, 50.9 prior). This was the first contractionary reading since November 2023, and the lowest since February 2024. Taken alongside the soft French services reading, the Eurozone-wide print is set to miss expectations of 50.5. The manufacturing index softened a touch to 48.0 (vs 47.6 cons, 48.3 prior), implying a slightly contractionary composite reading of 49.7 (vs 50.5 cons, 51.3 prior).
Tariff-related impacts are apparent, with services firms suffering from heightened uncertainty and manufacturers citing order frontloading and stock building.
Key notes from the release:
- "Service providers commented on the influence of concerns over tariffs and related uncertainty, with some clients reportedly delaying decision-making and reining in spending amid worries about the economic and political outlook".
- "Goods producers meanwhile noted a second straight monthly rise in new orders, supported by a first increase in export sales in over three years"..."there was evidence from panellists of the increases being partly driven by the frontloading of orders and related stockbuilding".
- "Both manufacturers and services firms revised down their growth expectations for the coming year, with the latter seeing sentiment deteriorate particularly sharply to the weakest since September 2023".
- "The decline in German private sector employment extended to an eleventh straight month in April"..."Further retrenchment in the manufacturing sector contrasted with sustained job creation in the service sector".
- "A slight uptick in the rate of inflation in average prices charged for goods and services"..."Manufacturers raised charges despite reporting a steep and accelerated reduction in input costs in April....Services firms, on the other hand, recorded a sharp and slightly quicker increase in operating expenses".
- "Data were collected 9-22 April".
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5929.04 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 2: 5801.77 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5770.50 High Mar 19
- PRICE: 5766.75 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 5559.75 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. Moving average studies are unchanged -they remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold. Recent gains are allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5801.77, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 5559.75, Mar 13 low.
WTI TECHS: (K5) Key Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: $76.57 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $70.98 - High Feb 25
- RES 1: $69.09 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $68.36 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: $64.85 - Low Mar 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $63.73 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $59.40 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
Despite holding on to its recent gains, a bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. Key pivot resistance to watch is $69.12, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of the downtrend would signal scope for an extension towards $63.73 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
GOLD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: $3106.8 - 2.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $3100.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3079.2 - 2.618 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3057.5 - High Mar 20
- PRICE: $3026.0 @ 07:25 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: $2999.5 - Low Mar 18
- SUP 2: $2960.0/2879.2 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 4: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
A clear uptrend in Gold is intact and last week’s resumption of the bull cycle reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last Thursday’s fresh trend high reinforces the bull theme and sights are on $3079.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Support is at $2962.0, the 20-day EMA.
