EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Trendline Support

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 150.44/151.07 High Jun 9 / High May 29
• PRICE: 149.92 @ 06:52 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 148.59 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 148.01/146.69 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

The broader theme in EURJPY remains bullish after last week’s gains. The cross has traded above initial resistance at 150.20, the Jun 5 high. A continuation higher would open 151.07, the May 29 high. Key resistance is at 151.61, the May 2 high and also represents an important bull trigger. Key short-term support is at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 148.01. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday with E4bln of the 10-year 2.30% Feb-33 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z007) on offer.
• Wednesday will also potentially see Portugal hold an exchange auction. If so, the announcement would likely be tomorrow.
• Thursday will see Spain come to the market to sell M-T/L-T Bonos/Oblis: 2.80% May-26 (ISIN: ES0000012L29), 5.15% Oct-28 (ISIN: ES00000124C5), and 3.90% Jul-39 (ISIN: ES0000012L60). The auction size will be announced this afternoon.
• On Thursday France will hold a MT OAT auction. On offer will be a combined E11-12bln of OATs: the 2.50% Sep-26 OAT (ISIN: FR001400FYQ4), the 0.75% Nov-28 OAT (ISIN: FR0013341682) and the 2.75% Feb-29 OAT (ISIN: FR001400HI98).
• France will then return to the market later in the morning to hold an IL OAT auction, to sell a combined E1-1.5bln of the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552), the 0.10% Jul-31 OATei (ISIN: FR0014001N38) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).
• Finland will conclude issuance for the week on Thursday with an ORI Facility operation. Details will be announced on Tuesday.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees redemptions totalling E28.3bln (E12.3bln of a formerly 3-year BTP and E16.0bln of Schatz) while coupons for the week are expected to be E0.7bln. With estimated nominal issuance of E44.1bln, this would leave estimated net flows of positive E15.1bln for the week.

For more on this week's supply, a recap of this week's issuance and a look ahead to two weeks from now see the PDF here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/53419/EZ2306...

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 116.36 High Jun 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.06 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 115.91 @ Close Jun 9
• SUP 1: 114.97/113.83 Low Jun 9 / 8
• SUP 2: 113.53 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally
• SUP 3: 112.86 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded lower last week but has rebounded from 113.83, the Jun 8 low. The contract has recently also pulled back from 116.36, the Jun 2 high. This highlights a developing short-term bearish threat and if correct, suggests potential for a deeper pullback near-term. The next firm support lies at 113.53, the 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 2 rally. Key resistance to watch is 116.36, a break would reinstate a bullish theme.