USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Support

• Risk-on/risk-off unwind knee jerk reactions across the board after Pres Trump said the Iran war "could be over soon" during phone in interview:
• The CBS reporter on x.com: @weijia: "NEW—In a phone interview, President Trump told me the war could be over soon: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.” He added that the U.S. is “very far” ahead of his initial 4-5 week estimated time frame."
• Additional headlines: REUTERS: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WEIGHING FURTHER EASING OF RUSSIA OIL SANCTIONS AMID PRICE SURGE - SOURCES" followed by AP citing the Kremlin that "Trump has call with Putin to discuss the war in Iran and other issues".
• Treasuries extending highs after the bell, TYM6 currently +7.5 at 112-21.5 high, resistance above at 113-21+ (50-day EMA High Mar 3).
• Cross asset update: Bbg US$ retreats: BBDXY -2.14 at 1201.20; SPX emini climbs higher: up 53.75 points (0.8%) at 6670.5.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the federal government posted a $308B deficit in February, about the same as the same month of the prior year ($1B more than Feb 2025). 

• That brings the cumulative deficit through the first 5 months of the 2026 fiscal year to just over $1T - compared with $1.15T the prior year and $828B in FY 2024 (around a $142B difference).
• And when adjusting for calendar effects, the current year's deficit would have been $919B, $144B lower than the prior year's.
• Revenues are up $206B (11%) vs outlays up $64B (2%) vs the prior year, when adjusting for timing shifts.
• Income/payroll taxes were up 8% but the absolute $132B increase was not significantly more than the $109B increase in customs duties, including tariffs (which helped pay for a $33B reduction in corporate income taxes).
• Outlays continued to be dominated by entitlement spending, with a $104B rose in Social SecurityMedicare/Medicaid (and a net negative $43B across the rest of the government).
• We await the official numbers from Treasury which are pencilled in to be released Wednesday.

• RES 4: 160.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 159.45 High Jan 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 159.23 High Jan 23
• RES 1: 158.90 Intraday high
• PRICE: 158.60 @ 15:56 GMT Mar 9 
• SUP 1: 155.78/154.00 50-day EMA / Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: 152.67 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low
• SUP 3: 152.10 Low Jan 27 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 ‘25

The current bull cycle in USDJPY remains intact and today’s bullish start to the week reinforces current conditions. Price remains above the 50-day EMA that was recently breached. That break highlights a stronger reversal. Note too that resistance at 157.76, the Feb 9 high, has been cleared. The clear breach of this level opens 159.45, the Jan 14 high and a key hurdle for bulls. Initial firm support lies at 155.78, the 50-day EMA.