MNI NBP Preview - April 2026: Let's Wait And See

Hidden PDF

Executive Summary:

• Unanimous consensus calls for an on-hold rate decision.
• The risk of second-round effects looms large, keeping central bankers on edge.
• Benign domestic picture allows the NBP to wait and monitor the situation.

Further interest-rate cuts are no longer on the cards, as the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) convenes several weeks into the war in the Middle East. While the fragile two-week truce reached on the eve of the meeting brought some risk reprieve, there are too many unknowns for central bankers to resume business as usual. Recent comments from MPC members supported virtually unanimous consensus leaning toward a stabilisation of interest rates, potentially through the rest of this year. On the other hand, favourable starting conditions allow the NBP to stand pat and monitor the situation rather than consider monetary tightening.