GOLD TECHS: Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3373.6/3439.0 - High Jul 25 / 23             
• PRICE: 3324.3 @ 07:20 BST Jul 30 
• SUP 1: $3301.9 - Low Jul 27 
• SUP 2: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3323.0, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the next key support at $3282.8, the Jul 9 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.

• A very tight 13 ticks range for Bund overnight, the French GDP prelim beat had no impact on EGBs, and Bund edges higher on the Cash Open, this was Cash led, with no real notable sizes going through in futures.
• The early Attention should be on the US Treasuries with the Tnotes (TYU5) fast approaching the 4.30% support level, this Equated to 111.16+ Yesterday.
• TYU5 might still be just short of the 22nd July high of 111.14+, but the Yield is already below that level.
• Short term 1 Month Risk for Bund remains to the upside and the initial resistance is still seen at the 129.92/130.00 area.
• Support comes at 129.19, followed by 128.84.
• It is a busier day ahead, Europe will see some CPI and Growth Data, ECB Wage Tracker, and out of the US, ADP, GDP, Core PCE, Treasury refunding and of course the awaited FOMC.
• SUPPLY: Heavy Italian supply, the 2030s and 2035 (equates combined 55.3k BTP) will weigh, the 2034 floating won't impact the Bond. UK sells £300mln 2052, too small won't impact Gilt.
• SPEAKERS: Fed Powell Presser.

• RES 4: $83.02 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.89/77.73 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-30 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $71.55 @ 07:06 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: $67.61/65.06 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures traded higher yesterday marking an extension of the corrective cycle that started Jun 30. The contract has traded through $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. The next resistance to watch is $72.89, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at $65.06, the Jun 30 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish theme.