US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 117-29+ High Aug 26 2022 (cont)
- RES 3: 117-14+ High Aug 29 / 30 2022 (cont)
- RES 2: 117-01+ High Mar 24 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 116-30 Intraday high
- PRICE: 116-17+ @ 19:28 BST Apr 5
- SUP 1: 115-29/115-02+ Intraday low / Low Apr 4
- SUP 2: 114-18+/07 20-day EMA / Low Mar 29 and 30
- SUP 3: 114-00+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 113-26 Low Mar 22
Treasury futures have traded higher again today, as the contract extends the recovery from last week’s low. The strong bounce undermines recent bearish signals and price has cleared resistance at 116-06+, the Mar 27 high. The continuation higher exposes 117-01+, the Mar 24 high and a key short-term resistance. A break would strengthen bullish conditions and open 117-14+, the Aug 29/30 2022 high (cont). Key support is at 114-07, the Mar 29/30 low.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.2244 61.8% retracement of the Jan 23 - Feb 17 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.2182 High Feb 15
- RES 2: 1.2147 High Feb 21 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 1.2064 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2035 @ 16:14 GMT Mar 6
- SUP 1: 1.1915 Low Feb 17 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 1.1785 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.1764 Low Nov 17
The GBPUSD trend condition is bearish and nearby resistance remains intact. Support to watch is 1.1915, the Feb 17 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and expose key support at 1.1842, the Jan 6 low. Clearance of this key price point would highlight a broader medium-term reversal threat and a potential double top pattern on the daily chart. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.2147, Feb 21 high.
EURUSD TECHS: 50-Day EMA Pierced For Second Time
- RES 4: 1.0915 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - 27 downleg.
- RES 3: 1.0803 High Feb 14 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 1.0724/27 38.2% of the Feb 2 - 27 downleg / 50-dma
- RES 1: 1.0658/91 50-day EMA / High Mar 1
- PRICE: 1.0646 @ 16:10 GMT Mar 6
- SUP 1: 1.0533 Low Feb 27 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0410 2.0% 10-dma envelope
EURUSD edged higher into the Monday close, resulting in the 50-day EMA being pierced for a second time. This level holds as resistance for now at 1.0658, and a clear break is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 1.0803, the Feb 14 high and a key short-term level. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective. Support to watch is 1.0533, the Feb 27 low. A break would resume the bear cycle.
OPTIONS: Mostly Bearish Rates Trades
Monday's Europe rates / bond options flow included:
- RXJ3 129.5/128.5ps, bought for 19 in 1.5k
- Conditional bear flattener - Buys ERN3 95.875/95.625 put spread in 6k, sells 0RN3 96.125/95.875 put spreadin 6k. Net paid 1.75)
- ERM3 96.375 put bought for 19 (vs 96.29)
- ERU3 96.125/96.00/95.875/95.75 put condor bought for 2.5 in 4.5k
- ERM4 96.00/96.50/97.00c fly, bought for 9.25 in 4k
