EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 2
- RES 3: 0.8811 1.236 proj of the Apr 14 - Jun 15 - Aug 2 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8721 High Jun 15 and a medium-term bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8689 High Sep 7
- PRICE: 0.8665 @ 16:49 BST Sep 8
- SUP 1: 0.8567 Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 0.8545 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8507 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 23
EURGBP rallied again Friday and is holding on to this week’s gains. The cross has now topped 0.8679, the Jul 1 high. Clearance here strengthens bullish conditions and exposes the key resistance at 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and an important bull trigger. A break of 0.8721 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started early March. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8567, the Sep 6 low.
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EURGBP TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
- RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8477 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8459 High Aug 9
- PRICE: 0.8446 @ 15:20 BST Aug 9
- SUP 1: 0.8340 Low Aug 2
- SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
- SUP 3: 0.8233 2.0% 10-dma envelope and low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and a key support
EURGBP is consolidating and holding on to its latest gains following the bounce from 0.8340, Aug 2 low. The outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness has reinforced a bearish theme and established a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in bear mode too. A continuation lower would open 0.8313, Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance is 0.8477, the 50-day EMA.
US: Wisconsin Primary Sets Up Key Senate Race
Primary elections in four states are underway - Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
- Wisconsin is one of the five pivotal Senate races which will determine control of the Senate in November. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona are the others.
- Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) is considered the most vulnerable Republican incumbent.
- The primaries appear a formality. Johnson has limited competition on the GOP side, and Democrat candidates have withdrawn to throw support behind Lt Gov Mandela Barnes.
- Jessica Taylor, of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report: “...this was always going to be one of the marquee races and it remains a toss-up for now.
- Bloomberg on the significance of Wisconsin for the 2024 presidential election: "The highly competitive swing state was won by Republican former President Donald Trump by less than a percentage point in 2016 and by Democratic President Joe Biden by a similar margin in 2020. Both parties will be looking to the Senate contest as a bellwether."
- Also today: Round three of former President Trump vs former Vice President Mike Pence in gubernatorial primaries.
- Trump won in Arizona last week when his endorsee Kari Lake defeated Pence backed Karrin Taylor Robson. In Georgia, Pence's endorsee Governor Brian Kemp comfortably defeated Trump's David Perdue.
- In Wisconsin, Pence, and the GOP establishment, have backed former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch. She appeared a clear favourite until construction company owner Tim Michels entered the contest with a significant self funded campaign budget and Trump's endorsement.
PIPELINE: $500M M&T Bank Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 08/09 $1B Dominion Energy 10Y +170, 30Y +195
- 08/09 $500M *AIIB 5Y SOFR+62
- 08/09 $500M #M&T Bank 6NC5 +158
- 08/09 $Benchmark Alabama Power 5Y +80a, 10Y +115a
