TARIFFS: Appeals Court Pauses Trump Tariff Block Ruling, Sets Up Early June Risk
It's probably not a huge surprise that a federal appeals court has (at least temporarily) lifted Wednesday's initial block on the White House's tariffs that had been imposed by the U.S. Court of International Trade. Indeed markets haven't had much reaction.
- Many of the tariffs remain blocked by another separate ruling this morning in a Washington D.C. federal court (the result of the White House's appeal there Is pending).
- Note though that the International Trade court's order is only paused "while this [appeals] court considers the motions papers", and to that end the appeals court has set deadlines of June 5 for the US importers who brought the case to respond to the government's motion for a stay, while the US government has been set a deadline of June 9 to file a reply - after that, the court will consider whether to lengthen the pause.
- So perhaps some additional event risk coming up early next month as the court cases are considered - depending of course on the White House's policy reaction in the meantime, with advisors suggesting today that the administration has many options at its disposal to resume tariffs outside of those previously implemented.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6450 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6388 @ 16:25 BST Apr 29
- SUP 1: 0.6344/6307 Low Apr 24 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
- SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support
The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Price has recently breached a key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6307, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $9B World Bank 2Pt Lion's Share $23B Supply
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 04/29 $9B *World Bank $4B 3Y +35, $5B 7Y +55
- 04/29 $5B *KFW 5Y SOFR+42
- 04/29 $2B *ADQ $1B 5Y +85, $1B 10Y +95
- 04/29 $1.75B *Swedish Export Credit 3Y SOFR+45
- 04/29 $1.5B #Las Vega Sands $1B 3Y +200, $500M 5Y +225
- 04/29 $1B *GS Private $400M 3Y +225, $600M 5Y +250
- 04/29 $900M *Tyco Electronics $450M each: +5Y +83, 10Y +97
- 04/29 $800M *Weir Group 5Y +160
- 04/29 $500M *Constellation Brands 5Y +107
- 04/29 $500M *Southwestern Public Service 10Y +115
- 04/29 $Benchmark Bahrain 12Y, 8Y Sukuk investor calls
- Expected Wednesday:
- 04/30 $Benchmark IADB 5Y SOFR+45a
- 04/30 $Benchmark CoE Dev Bank 3Y SOFR+37a
- 04/30 $Benchmark Nordic Investment Bank 5Y SOFR+44a
EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 163.76/164.19 High Apr 25 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.07 @ 16:24 GMT Apr 29
- SUP 1: 161.41/159.48 50-day EMA / Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: 158.30 Low Apr 7 and key support
- SUP 3: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4
Short-term weakness in EURJPY appears corrective and the trend condition remains bullish. Last week’s gains reinforce a bullish theme. Key S/T support lies at 158.30, the Apr 7 low. A break of it is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch is 161.41, the 50-day EMA. Attention is on 164.19, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
