NEW ZEALAND: ANZ Consumer Confidence Back Down In May, Unwinds April Gains

The NZD had a range overnight of 0.5927 - 0.5979, Asia is opening around 0.5935.

• The USD traded higher across the board as President Trump gives his first 100 days speech, being in the heartland of US Automakers there have been reports his administration will lessen the impacts of Auto tariffs.
• US consumer confidence fell to a nearly five-year low in April on tariff concerns. Job openings fell to the lowest level since September.
• “China responded to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent by urging countries against giving in to US tariff threats, saying it would only embolden the “bully”.”(per BBG)
• The NZD continues to consolidate on a 0.5900 handle.
• The price action continues to suggest that dips will probably find demand, first support on the day is 0.5900 then 0.5800/50.
• CFTC data show Asset managers have slowed their pace of buying last week, Leveraged funds though have been using dips to reduce their shorts. 
• Data : ANZ Activity Outlook, Business Confidence.

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude inventory build of 3.8mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. 674k barrels were added at Cushing. Products continued to destock with gasoline down 3.1mn and distillate 2.5mn. The official EIA data is out on Wednesday.

• RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7 
• PRICE: 95.805 @ 16:05 GMT Apr 29
• SUP 1: 95.420/95.300 - Low Feb 13 / Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 94.640 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Aussie 10-yr futures extended a recent strong bounce through to the Friday close, putting prices through the top end of the recent range. The confirmed breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high on the continuation contract, reinstates a bull cycle and focuses attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.