NEW ZEALAND: ANZ Consumer Confidence Back Down In May, Unwinds April Gains
New Zealand's ANZ consumer confidence survey fell 5.5% in May, completely reversing April's gain. This puts the index back just under 93.0. This is lows back to October last year. The general improving trend in consumer seen up to end 2024 has stalled in the first half of 2025.
- In terms of the detail, most sub components fell. Family finances for the year ahead eased to -16 from -13, whilst for the year ahead were at +12 from +23 in April.
- Views on the economy were also down, -20 for the year ahead, -1 for 5yrs ahead (from +9 in April).
- Today's result follows yesterday's softer business confidence read from ANZ, the chart below plots the two series. Business confidence (the white line) is coming off higher levels but has generally faltered since late last year as well.
- This underscores the RBNZ cut this week, with potentially more work to do to aid the growth recovery, albeit with one eye on inflation and inflation expectations.
Fig 1: ANZ Consumer & Business Confidence Measures Softening
Source: ANZ/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
NZD: NZDUSD - Trading Sideways
The NZD had a range overnight of 0.5927 - 0.5979, Asia is opening around 0.5935.
- The USD traded higher across the board as President Trump gives his first 100 days speech, being in the heartland of US Automakers there have been reports his administration will lessen the impacts of Auto tariffs.
- US consumer confidence fell to a nearly five-year low in April on tariff concerns. Job openings fell to the lowest level since September.
- “China responded to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent by urging countries against giving in to US tariff threats, saying it would only embolden the “bully”.”(per BBG)
- The NZD continues to consolidate on a 0.5900 handle.
- The price action continues to suggest that dips will probably find demand, first support on the day is 0.5900 then 0.5800/50.
- CFTC data show Asset managers have slowed their pace of buying last week, Leveraged funds though have been using dips to reduce their shorts.
- Data : ANZ Activity Outlook, Business Confidence.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
OIL: US Crude Stocks Build While Products Keep Falling
Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude inventory build of 3.8mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. 674k barrels were added at Cushing. Products continued to destock with gasoline down 3.1mn and distillate 2.5mn. The official EIA data is out on Wednesday.
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Remains Toward Top End of Recent Range
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.805 @ 16:05 GMT Apr 29
- SUP 1: 95.420/95.300 - Low Feb 13 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.640 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures extended a recent strong bounce through to the Friday close, putting prices through the top end of the recent range. The confirmed breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high on the continuation contract, reinstates a bull cycle and focuses attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
