THAILAND: Anutin Charnvirakul On Track To Become 32nd Prime Minister
Bhumjaithai Party's (BJT's) Anutin Charnvirakul is set to become the 32nd Prime Minister of Thailand after he struck a confidence-and-supply agreement with the opposition People's Party (PPLA), while the ruling Pheu Thai Party's (PTP's) ploy to dissolve parliament before the vote to confirm the new PM backfired. House Speaker Wan Muhammad Noor Matha scheduled the crucial vote for Friday, setting the stage for a final showdown between BJT and PTP candidates.
- Multiple local media outlets reported that the Privy Council returned acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachay's request for the dissolution of parliament citing legal concerns. The move is seen as a high-risk strategy, with several actors immediately filing complaints with law enforcement agencies, accusing Phumtham of overstepping his mandate.
- In a last-ditch (and seemingly doomed) attempt to block Anutin's nomination, the PTP said it would propose its only remaining eligible candidate Chaikasem Nitisiri for the position of the Prime Minister and pledged that he would immediately dissolve the House. Chaikasem is not a sitting MP and hence cannot speak in parliament to persuade lawmakers to back his PM bid.
- With Anutin Charnvirakul poised to take office, Khaosod circulated leaks of a proposed Cabinet line-up, with Anutin expected to double as Interior Minister. BJT Secretary General Chaichanok Chidchob is expected to become Higher Education Minister, while an unspecified ministerial portfolio has been reserved for PTP defector Sakda Wichiensilp.
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BOE: MNI BOE Preview
For the full MNI BOE Preview click here.
- This week’s MPC meeting will be a major surprise if there is not a 25bp cut.
- The focus will instead be on the vote split, the tone of the press conference, any changes to assumptions in the scenarios and any signalling ahead of September’s QT decision.
- We look at all of these aspects in detail as well as summarising over 20 sell side reports and rounding up analyst views.
STIR: Vote Split In Focus At Thursday’s BOE Decision
The focus of Thursday’s BOE decision will be the vote split, given almost full discounting of and unanimous expectations for a 25bp cut. MNI’s BOE preview will be released in due course.
- BOE-dated OIS price 50bps of easing through year-end, with just over 75bps of cuts priced through June 2026.
- SONIA futures are flat to -1.5 ticks through the blues, but remain well above pre-US NFP levels from Friday.
- We wrote yesterday that the SONIA/Euribor Dec '26 Spread has formed double bottom support in the 145.5/146bp area. With the market now more assured when it comes to pricing the ECB terminal rate (leaning towards one further 25bp cut in this cycle) any meaningful repricing is likely to come from the SONIA leg of the spread.
- UK final July services/composite PMIs are due at 0930BST, but are unlikely to be market moving.
| Meeting Date | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Aug-25 | 3.983 | -23.5 |
| Sep-25 | 3.947 | -27.1 |
| Nov-25 | 3.791 | -42.7 |
| Dec-25 | 3.719 | -49.9 |
| Feb-26 | 3.601 | -61.7 |
| Apr-26 | 3.561 | -65.7 |
| Jun-26 | 3.482 | -73.6 |
| Jul-26 | 3.462 | -75.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
GILTS: Opening Calls
Gilt Calls, 92.64/92.69.
