THAILAND: Anutin Charnvirakul On Track To Become 32nd Prime Minister

For the full MNI BOE Preview click here.

• This week’s MPC meeting will be a major surprise if there is not a 25bp cut.
• The focus will instead be on the vote split, the tone of the press conference, any changes to assumptions in the scenarios and any signalling ahead of September’s QT decision.
• We look at all of these aspects in detail as well as summarising over 20 sell side reports and rounding up analyst views.

The focus of Thursday’s BOE decision will be the vote split, given almost full discounting of and unanimous expectations for a 25bp cut. MNI’s BOE preview will be released in due course.

• BOE-dated OIS price 50bps of easing through year-end, with just over 75bps of cuts priced through June 2026.
• SONIA futures are flat to -1.5 ticks through the blues, but remain well above pre-US NFP levels from Friday.
• We wrote yesterday that the SONIA/Euribor Dec '26 Spread has formed double bottom support in the 145.5/146bp area. With the market now more assured when it comes to pricing the ECB terminal rate (leaning towards one further 25bp cut in this cycle) any meaningful repricing is likely to come from the SONIA leg of the spread.
• UK final July services/composite PMIs are due at 0930BST, but are unlikely to be market moving.  

Gilt Calls, 92.64/92.69.