AUD: Antipodean Update

The overnight range was 6.9547 - 6.9591, Asia is currently trading around {CNH Curncy}. The pair continues to trade heavy under 7.0000 as the woes of the USD add tailwinds. The pair remains under pressure even with “smoothing” by local banks and the PBOC. On the day, first resistance is back toward 6.9700-6.9800 then the more important 7.00-02 area. I suspect sellers will be lining up again on any bounce back above the 7.0000 area if they do see it.

• MNI PBOC WATCH: Jan LPR To Hold On Structural Rates Cut. China’s Loan Prime Rate is likely to remain unchanged in January after the central bank opted to cut interest rates on its structural facilities for key sectors, cooling expectations for any near-term, across-the-board policy easing.  {NSN T93LQ86QRTHC <GO>}
• (Bloomberg) -- The yuan rose as much as 0.2% on Monday after official data showed China’s economic growth for last year met the government’s target. Despite achieving the 5% growth target, China’s economy posted weaker year-on-year growth one quarter after another in 2025, showing domestic demand remains weak.”
• The USD/CNH Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 122 Points
• Data/Event : 1 & 5 Year Loan Prime Rate, FDI YTD YoY CNY

Fig 1 : USD/CNH Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• RES 3: 140.08 - High Jun 13  
• RES 2: 139.05 - High Aug 4 
• RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 131.35 @ 17:27 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 131.31 - 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 2: 131.25 - Low Jan 19
• SUP 3: 130.65 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope  

Prices traded to new pullback and cycle lows this week on confirmation of early lower house elections. This affirms the firm downtrend that’s dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signaling any broader reversal. The Lower Bollinger Band at 131.57 is providing support for now, with 130.82 envelope support below. 

• RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
• RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
• PRICE: 95.200 @ 17:24 GMT Jan 19
• SUP 1: 95.123 - 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 2: 95.120 - Low Dec 10
• SUP 3: 94.301 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Aussie 10-yr futures remain well toward the bottom of the recent range, having taken out all major support levels in the process. With 95.275 cleared, prices are pushing to new contract lows, opening vol-band support through 95.123 and into 94.301. Any recoveries need to break back above 95.900 to signal near-term bullish traction.