NETHERLANDS: ANP-D66 Wins Election, Likely To Lead Coalition Talks

ANP reports that the liberal progressive Democrats 66 (D66) have won the 29 October general election. As of last night, D66 led the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) by 15k votes. NOS: "Although not all votes have been counted yet, the news agency says Rob Jetten's party can no longer be overtaken by the PVV. The news agency bases its findings on an analysis of the municipal results. Only the municipality of Venray has not yet announced its results. This will happen later today..."

• Dutch voters abroad's ~90k ballots also need to be counted. In the 2023 election, D66 won 10.5% of voters abroad to the PVV's 6.3%, despite the election marking a high-water mark for the PVV. With the PVV losing support in 2025 and D66 on course to win a record number of seats, ANP will have judged the D66 lead insurmountable.
• The identity of the first-placed party is important for coalition talks. Historically, the largest party is offered the first opportunity to appoint the 'scout' who sounds out other parties on starting the negotiating process.
• After sparking the collapse of the Schoof gov't, and due to its hardline views, the other major parties said pre-election that they are not willing to work with the PVV.
• For D66, the path to gov't could prove smoother. There is the mathematical prospect of a four-party coalition gov't across the broad political centre.
• Holding his first cabinet meeting since the 29 October general election, PM Dick Schoof says that he does not expect a new gov't to be in place by Christmas.