USD: Another positive session
- The Dollar is still king, after US Data keep beating expectations and inflation remains sticky.
- The USD is in deep green territory across the majors Year To Date, only the MXN is up 3.16% for that period, while the Yen and the Swissy are down 7.96% and 7.68% respectively for that period.
- The early loser today in G10 is the SEK, down 0.45% following the Swedish CPI coming below consensus.
- Despite the spike in USDSEK, it is still short of Yesterday's high and more importantly 10.8254, the April high and the highest print since November.
- Focus in FX, is still squarely on the YEN, with USDJPY making an attempt to 153.32 overnight, Yesterday's high, so far printed a 153.29 high.
- Market participants will remain cautious of intervention risks going forward.
- Immediate resistance is unchanged and at 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing.
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EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5042.10 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 27 low
- RES 3: 5030.60 2.764 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 5000.00 Psychological round number
- RES 1: 4997.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 4989.00 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 4873.00 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4757.00 Low Feb 19
- SUP 3: 4739.20 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 4669.60 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 27 low
A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position - this continues to highlight positive market sentiment. Price is approaching the psychological 5000.00 handle next. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards a bull channel top at 5042.10. The channel is drawn from the Oct 27 low. Initial firm support lies at 4873.00, the 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (All Times in GMT)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 13-Mar | 0700 | Jan | GDP/Trade/Services/Production/Construction |
| 15-Mar | 0930 | Feb | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
| 18-Mar | 1530 | DMO Quarterly Investor/GEMM Consultation Meetings | |
| 20-Mar | 0001 | Feb | XpertHR pay deals for whole economy |
| 20-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Consumer inflation report/ Producer Prices |
| 21-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Mar | 0930 | Mar | S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI flash |
| 21-Mar | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 21-Mar | 1200 | BOE's MPS and minutes | |
| 21-Mar | 1200 | BOE's Agents' summary of business conditions | |
| 22-Mar | 0001 | Mar | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 22-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Retail Sales |
| 22-Mar | 0730 | DMO to release calendar for FQ1 (Apr-Jun) Ops | |
| 22-Mar | 1100 | Mar | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 22-Mar | 1630 | BOE to announce APF sales schedule for Q2-24 | |
| 25-Mar | 1100 | Mar | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | 4Q | GDP Second Estimate |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | 4Q | Quarterly current account balance |
EURGBP TECHS: Moving Averages Studies Highlight A Downtrend
- RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
- RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
- RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
- RES 1: 0.8555/78 High Mar 12 / High Feb 20 and key resistance
- PRICE: 0.8542 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Mar 08
- SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
- SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023
The broader trend direction in EURGBP is down and moving average studies continue to highlight a bear trend. Attention is on key support at 0.8493, the Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and signal scope for 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key resistance is unchanged at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.
