SOUTH AFRICA: ANC SecGen Mbalula Digs In On Reform Agenda Despite US Pressure

FX Exchange traded Option, New Position, looking for Yen strength, still trading in a few clips:

• JPYUSD (8th Aug) 63.00p, sold at 0.25 in 2k total now.

• A slightly better volume overnight session for Bund, the contract saw a tiny gap lower on the Overnight Open but this was closed.
• The surprised unchanged Rate from the RBA was worth a 12 ticks drop for Bund but the contract is back at pre RBA decision level.
• Near term risk is at the Immediate Yield of 2.671% which equated to 129.77 Yesterday.
• Further out would see 2.701%, also equated to 129.46 Yesterday. This latter level in Yield is May's high.
  The resistance in Bund comes down to 130.51 50-day EMA.
• US 10yr continues to probe 4.40% into the EGB Cash Open.
• There's no notable Data for Today, NY 1yr Inflation expectation is the only release, the main focus is on Supply Today.
• SUPPLY: Netherlands €2.25bn 2044 (equates to 30.2k Bund) could weigh, UK 2049 Linker (won't impact Gilt), German €5bn Bobl is heavy (equates to 46.6k Bobl) will weigh, Austria 2035, 2040 (won't impact Bund), US Sells $58bn of 3yr Notes.
• SYNDICATION: EU new 7yr Dec-32, and tap of the 3.75% Oct-45.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Nagel.

• RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $69.40 @ 07:10 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Short-term conditions in Brent futures are unchanged, they remain bearish and gains are considered corrective. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, and this sell-off highlights a bearish theme. The 50-day EMA has been breached and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.