SOUTH AFRICA: ANC-DA Tensions Resurface, Ramaphosa To Deliver Key Address Sunday
Jul-11 06:35
- News24 reported that the GNU 'is hanging by a threat' as the coalition's dispute-resolution mechanisms are inoperative while the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) are heading for a major confrontation. The DA indicated that it would vote against selected departmental budgets on July 23 unless the President dismisses certain compromised ministers. This would block the adoption of the Appropriations Bill that underpins the National Budget. In the meantime, the ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC) will hold a key meeting at the end of next week and may discuss the DA's continued participation in the coalition government. The meeting has been pushed back by ANC leaders, reportedly due to their concern that the executive body was leaning towards parting ways with the DA. News24 noted that some ANC members believed that the party could strike a deal with ActionSA, but this would leave the GNU with only a razor-thin majority and ActionSA said it would only join the coalition based on a detailed agreement.
- President Cyril Ramaphosa will address the nation on Sunday night on 'developments arising from a public statement by KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner, Lt-Gen Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, that details allegations against senior political and South African Police Service leadership.' This comes as the Democratic Alliance (DA), the second largest party in the Government of National Unity (GNU), initiated legal action against the Police Minister.
- ANC NEC insiders told TimesLIVE that Ramaphosa is facing a difficult balancing act between the party's and the country's interests while deciding on ministerial dismissals. Separately, Mail & Guardian reported that a Cabinet reshuffle could take place this weekend, while the issue may be added the the agenda of next week's NEC meeting.
- Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa told parliament that structural loadshedding has effectively been eliminated as Eskom is aiming to bring its energy availability factor (EAF) to 70% by the end of this financial year.
- The National Treasury is looking to sell 2.25% 2038, 5.125% 2043 and 2.50% 2050 linkers today.
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BOE: Saporta: PMRR Estimate GBP385-540bln
Jun-11 06:32
Initial highlights from BOE’s Saporta’s speech:
- “We cannot know ex-ante what that level will be and since we are not operating a supply-driven system, we do not need to rely on accurate estimates of demand to determine how much we supply. That said, it is useful to have such estimates, for planning purposes, including by asking banks what is their preferred minimum range of reserves (PMRR). The latest survey suggests that PMRR is £385-540bn, marginally higher than £385-530bn in Q3 2024”.
- The upper bound of this range is GBP10bln higher than the £385-530bln range provided by Mann last week.
WTI TECHS: (N5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
Jun-11 06:31
- RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
- RES 2: $67.14 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 bear leg
- RES 1: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
- PRICE: $65.08 @ 07:21 BST Jun 11
- SUP 1: $59.74/54.33 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures have traded higher this week, extending the current bull cycle. The contract has cleared the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for an extension towards $67.14 next, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible that the recovery since early May is a correction. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant M/T downtrend. Support to watch lies at $59.74, the May 30 low. A break would highlight a potential bearish reversal.
GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Weakness Appears Corrective
Jun-11 06:25
- RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $3403.5 - High Jun 5
- PRICE: $3336.1 @ 07:25 BST Jun 11
- SUP 1: $3245.6 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 3: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
- SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support
A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, the next support to monitor is $3245.6, the 50-day EMA.
