SOUTH AFRICA: ANC-DA Tensions Resurface, Ramaphosa To Deliver Key Address Sunday

Initial highlights from BOE’s Saporta’s speech:

• “We cannot know ex-ante what that level will be and since we are not operating a supply-driven system, we do not need to rely on accurate estimates of demand to determine how much we supply. That said, it is useful to have such estimates, for planning purposes, including by asking banks what is their preferred minimum range of reserves (PMRR). The latest survey suggests that PMRR is £385-540bn, marginally higher than £385-530bn in Q3 2024”.
• The upper bound of this range is GBP10bln higher than the £385-530bln range provided by Mann last week.

• RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20  
• RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: $67.14 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 bear leg 
• RES 1: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
• PRICE: $65.08 @ 07:21 BST Jun 11 
• SUP 1: $59.74/54.33 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

WTI futures have traded higher this week, extending the current bull cycle. The contract has cleared the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for an extension towards $67.14 next, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible that the recovery since early May is a correction. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant M/T downtrend. Support to watch lies at $59.74, the May 30 low. A break would highlight a potential bearish reversal.

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3403.5 - High Jun 5         
• PRICE: $3336.1 @ 07:25 BST Jun 11 
• SUP 1: $3245.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 3: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, the next support to monitor is $3245.6, the 50-day EMA.