CHILE: Analysts Share View That BCCh Has Room to Cut Policy Rate This Month

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• Thursday's MPC decision is far from certain - indeed we would categorise our own view of the outcome as 50/50 between a 25bp cut and a hold.
• We look at the drivers for each members' vote and the key data since the last meeting / August forecasts.
• In essence, we think a 5-4 vote is the most likely outcome but that it could deliver a cut or a hold. Governor Bailey's vote will be the deciding factor here, in our view.
• We have also summarised over 20 sellside previews.

• Treasury left nominal Treasury coupon auction sizes unchanged for a 7th straight quarter and kept guidance that it anticipates maintaining coupon sizes for "at least the next several quarters."
• New added guidance hints that an increase is coming: "Looking ahead, Treasury has begun to preliminarily consider future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on evaluating trends in structural demand and assessing potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles."
• Refunding will be $58B in new 3Ys, $42B in new 10Y, and $25B in new 30Y next week, as expected.
• Bill offerings will be maintained through late November, then Treasury will implement modest reductions to short-dated bill auction sizes in December and increase auction sizes again by the middle of January based on expected fiscal inflows and outflows.
• TBAC was mixed on how Treasury should approach adjustments to its current forward guidance and said that current projections could warrant increases in coupon issuance in FY2027.
• Discussing the pressure on short-term interest rates in October, TBAC concluded it is both a supply/collateral story and a demand/reserves story. It recommended Treasury better communicate the need to keep a large TGA balance. 

The below table shows the actual auction sizes for the August to October 2025 quarter and the anticipated auction sizes for the November 2025 to January 2026 quarter, in billions of dollars. 

Modest hawkish reaction in the USD front end following the fairly limited upside surprise in the ADP employment reading and small revision to the prior reading.

• Relatively modest deviation in the print/revisions and the headline being quite close to the level implied by the weekly data help explain the limited follow through.
• FOMC-dated OIS now pricing 17bp of easing for Dec, 26bp through Feb, 35bp through March and 41bp through April, ~0.5bp less dovish vs. pre-data levels.
• SOFR-implied terminal rate pricing at 3.10% vs. 3.09% pre-data.