EUROPEAN INFLATION: Analysts See EZ June Headline 1.9-2.0%, Core 2.2-2.3%

Analysts are not unanimous in their views of where headline and core Eurozone HICP are going to land exactly in July following national-level data released over the last couple of days. However, the range of views is limited, with headline seen to print 1.9-2.0% Y/Y and core seen in between 2.2 and 2.3% Y/Y this month. For reference, the ECB expectes Eurozone headline and core HICP to average 2.0% and 2.5% in Q3, respectively, according to their most recent projections. Analysts' key quotes below:

• Barclays: "We track EA headline and core HICP in July at 1.9% y/y and 2.2% y/y, respectively. This would be in line with our initial forecasts. However, we see risks that core rounds up to 2.3% y/y."
• Berenberg: "On average in [the countries having released national-level figures already], headline yoy inflation rates remained almost unchanged in July compared to June (see Table). This implies a risk that aggregate Eurozone inflation may hold steady rather than, as predicted by Reuters consensus, decreasing to 1.9% yoy in July from 2.0% in June."
• Goldman Sachs: "Taking the German national data into account, we leave our Euro area headline and core inflation forecast for July unchanged at 1.97%yoy and 2.28%yoy, respectively. This would imply seasonally adjusted sequential core inflation of 0.22%mom"
• JP Morgan: "Overall, risk to our Euro area core inflation forecast (0.1%m/m, sa, and slowing 0.1%-pt to 2.2%oya) may be likely tilted slightly (i.e. 0.1%-pt) to the upside. However, if our forecast is realized, it would leave core inflation looking closer to the ECB target."