EMISSIONS: Analysts Raise EUA 2025 Forecast, Lower for 2026, 2027
Jul-16 12:27
Analysts have slightly raised EUA price forecasts for 2025 but lowered forecasts for 2026 and 2027 versus April levels according to a Reuters survey of ten analysts on 16 July.
- EUA prices are forecast to average €75.15/ton CO2e for 2025, up from €74.89/ton CO2e in April.
- 2025 forecasts are ranging between €72/ton CO2e and €80/ton CO2e.
- EUAs in 3Q25 are forecast to average €73.54/ton CO2e, down from €76.1/ton CO2e and at €76.13/ton CO2e 4Q25.
- For 2026, EUAs are forecast at €91.08/ton CO2e, down from €91.37/ton CO2e previously.
- For 2027, prices have been revised down to €108.7/ton CO2e versus €109.62/ton CO2e in April.
- Analysts have cited trade wars and geopolitical uncertainty as bearish factors for EUAs this year, while tighter supply is expected to be bullish for EUAs from 2026.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1% at 72.19 EUR/MT
- EUA DEC 26 up 0.8% at 73.92 EUR/MT
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - G7 Summit Gets Underway Amid Global Turbulence
Jun-16 12:26
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- President Donald Trump arrived in Canada yesterday evening for the G7 leaders’ summit, his first major multilateral event since returning to the White House.
- Israel and Iran exchanged missile fire for a fourth day. Trump told reporters he believes a deal can be reached, but the two sides may need to continue fighting before they’re ready for peace.
- Trump’s statement on Thursday that he would send letters to trading partners outlining new tariff rates and concerns over US participation in AUKUS pushed the dollar to its lowest level in three years.
- Trump pledged to expand his operation to deport illegal migrants in Democrat-run cities, a hardline move, which appears to provide cover for last week's decision to exempt certain sectors from ICE operations. The Trump administration is also considering adding 36 countries to the travel ban announced early this month, including several significant US partners.
- The European Commission is expected to propose accepting a 10% tariff on all EU exports to the US.
- The Senate Finance Committee is expected to release some, or all, of the legislative text of its portion of the ‘One Big Beautiful’ reconciliation bill today. Once the final text is released, the Senate Parliamentarian will begin the so-called ‘Byrd Bath’ to ensure the bill conforms with the rules of Budget Reconciliation.
- Poll of the Day: Consumer confidence appears to be on the rebound.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
EQUITIES: ROLL PACE (Updated)
Jun-16 12:25
US:
- SPX: 29%.
- NDX: 22%.
- DOW: 26%.
EU:
- VGA: 25%.
- DAX: 18% (below Pace).
- FTSE: 32%.
STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Jun-16 12:07
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.28% (+0.00), volume: $2.644T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.27% (+0.00), volume: $1.089T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.27% (+0.00), volume: $1.062T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
