INDIA: Analyst Views On Larger-Than-Expected RBI Rate Cut
Jun-06 14:52
- Goldman Sachs believes that the RBI has signalled the end of the easing cycle. With a 5.50% repo rate, this means a ~1% real policy rate on one-year forward inflation forecast. The RBI may not want the ex-ante real rate below 1%, especially when the growth outlook is balanced.
- ING thinks that with today’s move, the RBI is signalling a near-term pause, while leaving the door open for more easing if growth or inflation weakens further. They continue to expect another 25bp rate cut in Q4. Looking ahead, they think two-way volatility in INR is likely, but overall, the RBI’s renewed focus on FX reserve accumulation, slower GDP growth this year, and geopolitical uncertainty should all mean USDINR finds a floor around current levels and moves up from here.
- JP Morgan says that today’s development reveals a slightly shallower rate-cutting cycle, but one that has been front-loaded to boost monetary transmission. With the MPC changing the stance to neutral from accommodative, just one meeting after it had moved to accommodative, JPM believes that the current policy rate of 5.50% is the terminal rate. Indeed, Governor Malhotra reiterated that there is very little scope to cut rates in the future.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'25/Aug'25 10Y Straddle Spread
May-07 14:47
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BTP: The Italian 10yr Yield is set to test the April low
May-07 14:37
- The Italian BTP is now testing that April high of 120.57, so far printed a 120.55 high.
- Worth noting that Technical also sees the next resistance at 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing.
- While in Yield the 3.537% April low also equates near that level at 120.68, an interesting area here.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI Speaks to Evan Koenig on Economic Outlook
May-07 14:35
- MNI speaks to Evan Koenig, former senior aide to the president of the Dallas Fed, on the economic outlook -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
