PERU: Analyst Views On BCRP Interest Rate Decision
Dec-12 09:57
- BBVA says that the hold was largely expected, even if a minority were looking for a cut, and should have limited immediate impact. Given robust activity data and inflation data consistent with the 2% target, the BCRP decided it does not need to cut rates further at this time. The BCRP has been leaning against further PEN appreciation and BBVA sees potential for asymmetry in the PEN, which they express through a long EURPEN trade idea. USDPEN, meanwhile, continues to find support at the 3.36 level, with help from the BCRP’s actions.
- Itaú expects headline inflation to rise moderately in the coming months reaching 1.6% by year-end. The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, particularly if favourable exchange rate dynamics and low oil prices persist. Itaú believes that the BCRP is in the fine tuning stage of the cycle and is likely to cut the policy rate by 25bp in 1Q26, ending the cycle at the nominal neutral rate of 4%.
- JP Morgan notes that the BCRP is still signalling confidence that headline inflation will converge toward 2% by the policy horizon despite a recent downtick driven by temporary supply shocks. With a strong terms‑of‑trade tailwind, an output gap that is essentially closed, and labour and credit markets holding firm, JPM’s baseline calls for the BCRP to maintain its policy rate for the foreseeable future.
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EGB OPTIONS: Schatz Put Condor seller
Nov-12 09:56
DUZ5 107.30/107.20/107.10/106.90 broken p condor, sold at -1 in 3k.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY - Notable in Cable and AUD Today
Nov-12 09:55
Of note:
GBPUSD 1.88bn at 1.3100 (could act as Magnet).
AUDUSD 2.31bn at 0.6500/0.6525 (could act as Magnet).
EURUSD 1.09bn at 1.1500 (a bit far).
EURUSD 5.38bn 1.1575/1.1615 (thu).
USDJPY 1.13bn at 155.00 (thu).
EURUSD 1.41bn at 1.1625 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.1500 (1.09bn), 1.1530 (668mln), 1.1550 (790mln), 1.1575 (491mln), 1.1590 (320mln), 1.1600 (400mln).
- GBPUSD: 1.3100 (1.88bn), 1.3200 (781mln).
- USDJPY: 155.00 (571mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6500 (1.37bn), 0.6525 (939mln).
- NZDUSD: 0.5600 (538mln), 0.5625 (330mln).
GILT SYNDICATION: Books for 1.75% Sep-38 linker exceed the June launch
Nov-12 09:50
- Note that books were GBP61.3bln for the launch syndication of this linker in June - so we have already exceeded that with books in excess of GBP66bln with 15 mins to go.
- That resulted in a GBP5.5bln transaction size which was the top end of our expected range ahead of books opening today.
