PERU: Analyst Views On BCRP Decision
Feb-14 10:02
- BBVA says that the BCRP could take nominal policy rates down to 4.50% as that would take the real policy rate to around the estimated neutral rate. If inflation expectations continue to fall, this could open space for further cuts, depending on the magnitude of the drop. BBVA continues to flag their preference to add short USDPEN at or above 3.75.
- Goldman Sachs interprets the communique as leaning slightly hawkish. First, the MPC said that the very low recent inflation readings were driven by temporary factors that will dissipate in the near-term. Second, the external backdrop became more exigent. Third, the MPC noted that economic activity indicators “show higher growth”. GS still believes the MPC will be patient in delivering a final 25bp rate cut to 4.5%, which would bring the policy rate to broad neutrality.
- JP Morgan believes that the removal of the reference to the real interest rate approaching the neutral level indicates that the Board has shifted into a data-dependent regime, even though JPM assesses that monetary policy remains restrictive. JPM expects the BCRP to maintain the policy rate stable through Q2 and still sees room for a further 50bp of easing in H2. Fed easing seems a necessary condition for the BCRP to act, absent a more marked growth deceleration.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITIES: EU Bank strangle
Jan-15 10:02
SX7E (20th June) 150/160^^ bought for 12.35 in 15k vs 2.25k at 154.50.
MNI: RPT INVITE: MNI Webcast with ECB Frank Elderson On Feb 12
Jan-15 10:00
You are invited to listen to an MNI Webcast with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank.
Details below:
- TOPIC OF DISCUSSION: 'Climate Change: Impact on Monetary Policy & Bank Supervision'
- DATE: Wednesday 12 February
- TIME: 10 am to 11:15 am London time / 11 am to 12:15 pm Frankfurt time
- This event is on the record and will run as a Zoom Webinar
To register please go to: MNI Webcast Registration
EUROZONE DATA: IP In Line With Tracking, Underlying Rebounds
Jan-15 10:00
Eurozone November industrial production was in-line with consensus and our tracking estimate at 0.2% M/M. The October reading was also revised up to 0.2% M/M from flat (as we had estimated). We estimate IP excluding Ireland grew between 0.7-0.8% M/M, a solid rebound from -0.2% in October.
- All five subcomponents rose M/M (this hasn't happened in the last 6 months), with four of the five accelerating from the October reading.
- Energy production bounced 1.1% M/M (vs -1.3% in Oct) - the highest monthly growth since June 2024.
- Similarly, durable consumer goods production increased 1.5% M/M (from -1.6% in Oct), and non-durable consumer goods production rose marginally by 0.1% (after falling 2.4% in Oct).
- Intermediate goods saw production rise a further 0.5% M/M following growth of 0.3% in Oct.
- Capital goods, whilst also recording growth at 0.5% M/M in November, moderated after October's solid rise of 1.7% - the lowest reading since June 2024.
- For more on the country breakdown see our preview bullet (EUROZONE DATA: Industrial Production Ex-Ireland Set To Rebound In Nov, 14 January).
- The underlying member country positive performance points to a potential rebound in Q4 quarterly IP after two successive quarterly declines, though PMI data remains weak with composite PMI remaining below 50.
