CHF: Analyst Views Ahead of Thursday's SNB Meeting

Ahead of Thursday's SNB meeting, EURCHF has matched its previous lowest daily close to date of 0.9274. While trend conditions remain bearish for the cross, we would highlight that levels between 0.9200-0.9300 have previously been well supported, bolstered by the narrative that these levels may attract the attention of the SNB, who may look to curb any excessive Franc strength. Analysts have split views on the pair:

CIBC (seeing a 50bp cut):

• "We like EUR/CHF upside in the week ahead to the 0.9350 level."

Goldman Sachs (seeing a 50bp cut):

• "We have argued that CHF would not be our preferred funder in an environment of escalating trade tensions and tariff uncertainty, and in fact, think going long CHF could be an effective hedge."
• "In the more medium term, we think safe-haven demand should dominate domestic policy impulses; given the Franc’s safe-haven characteristics, low rates should not entirely dissuade portfolio inflows if Euro area weakness continues or accelerates.
• "Ultimately, the scenario that necessitates negative rates is unlikely to take EUR/CHF higher. In the case of a broader and more severe trade war than our current baseline, we think it will be likely to see both negative rates and a stronger Franc."

ING (seeing a 25bp cut):

• "We favour a grind lower towards this year's spike lows near 0.9200/9210 as it becomes apparent the SNB will not be able to keep pace with ECB easing."

JP Morgan (seeing a 25bp cut):

• "We continue to see RM demand for CHF, who have bought in 9 out of the last 10 sessions."

Note that our preview on the SNB decision will be out shortly.