US DATA: An In-Line Existing Home Sales Report

There were no surprises in the September existing home sales report, with sales nudging higher but still depressed. Relative supply remained high by recent year standards but not historically so, whilst median house price growth remained mild at ~2% Y/Y. 

• Existing home sales were completely as expected as they nudged up to 4.06m (saar) in September after an unrevised 4.00m in August, for a 1.5% M/M increase.
• It holds what has been a narrow range close to lows for months now with an average of 4.01m since May.
• For context, the recent low of 3.90m in Sep 2024, which it came close to again with 3.93 back in June, was lowest since 2010. Current sales are running at ~75% of 2019 levels in continued signs of a depressed market.  
• Factor in inventories and relative supply tells a similar story to recent months; high by post-pandemic standards and a few years prior the pandemic but low compared to the glut in the lead up to the GFC.
• Specifically, the 4.6 months in September compares with 4.2 in Sep 2024 (the same relative difference to the August Y/Y comparison) and 4.2 in Septembers in 2017-19 for a pre-pandemic comparison.
• There were little new developments in house price dynamics, with the median price rising 2.1% Y/Y. House price growth has averaged 2.2% Y/Y in the ytd after 4.5% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2023 followed the booming 10.5% in 2022, 18% in 2021 and 9% in 2020.