EU REAL ESTATE: Amvest (AMVCUS: Baa2 pos) New issue Final
Final: €300m WNG 6yr Green ms+155
• Books: >3.3bn
• IPT: €300m WNG 6yr Green ms+200a.
• FV: we had ms+175bps existing 30s (4.56yrs) + 17bps for curve but 30s then rallied to z+151 which would have put FV +168.
• Comps: wider names in Residential but good reasons to think this name can trade significantly tighter if there were more name recognition. We said that earlier and the 30s are starting to reprice.... But that is quite some move to final pricing....
• UPDATE: AMVCUS 3.875 30s screening z+148 now.
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EQUITIES: EU Bank put fly
SX7E (19th Sep) 160/155/150p fly, bought for 0.20 in 6k.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Still Present
- On the commodity front, Gold is trading higher today. Recent weakness appears to have been a correction. The yellow metal breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight a deeper retracement and open the 50-day EMA, at 3115.11 - a key support. The primary trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3500.1, the Apr 22 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level resumes the uptrend.
- In the oil space, a medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. The correction allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $53.72, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Resistance to watch is $64.61, the 50-day EMA. Initial resistance is $61.94, the 20-day EMA.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 113-22 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 22 price swing
- RES 3: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-20+ High MAy 1 and key new-term resistance
- RES 1: 112-01+ High Apr 2
- PRICE: 111-07+ @ 11:36 BST May 5
- SUP 1: 111-02 Low Mar 2 / 50-dma
- SUP 2: 110-30+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 110-16+/109-08 Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
A sharp reversal lower in Treasury futures last week undermines the recent bull cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA, and sights are on support at the 50-day EMA, at 110-30+. A clear breach of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 110-16+, the Apr 22 low. For bulls, price needs to trade above key short-term resistance at 112-20+, the May 1 high, to reinstate a bullish theme.
