EU REAL ESTATE: Amvest (AMVCUS: Baa2 pos) New issue
• IPT: €300m WNG 6yr Green ms+200a.
• FV: ms+175bps existing 30s (4.56yrs) + 17bps for curve.
• Comps: wider names in Residential but good reasons to think this name can trade significantly tighter if there were more name recognition. See graph and notes linked.
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25
- PRICE: $32.385 @ 08:07 BST May 5
- SUP 1: $31.668 - Low May 2
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A strong rally in Silver on Apr 23 reinforced the current bullish theme. This suggests the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is a correction. Price has traded below support at $322.443, the 50-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the latest uptrend.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put Condor
ERU5 98.50/98.37/98.25/98.00p condor, bought for flat in 6.2k.
USDCAD TECHS: New Cycle Low
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4076 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3923 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3813 @ 08:00 BST May 5
- SUP 1: 1.3760 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south. A fresh cycle low on Friday reinforces the bearish theme signalling scope for a continuation, near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3923, the 20-day EMA.
