Underlying futures mixed, short end weaker after FOMC minutes from the Oct meeting revealed tepid support for Dec cut. In turn - projected rate cut pricing recedes from this morning's levels (*): Dec'25 at -7bp (-12bp), Jan'26 at -20.1bp (-22.1bp), Mar'26 at -30.3bp (-33.4bp), Apr'26 at -38.1bp (-41.1bp). Some large SOFR midcurve call spread selling late after call condor buying midday -hedging an additional 25-50bp in rate cuts from March-June 2026:
- SOFR Options:
- -50,000 0QZ5 97.00/97.25 call spds, 4.25-4.0 ref 96.915
- +10,000 SFRF6/SFRG6 95.93/96.06/96.18 put fly spd, 1.25 net/Feb over
- Update, appr +40,000 SFRM6 96.75/97.12/97.25/97.62 call condors, 5.5-5.75 ref 96.665
- Update, over +20,000 SFRH6 96.50/96.62/97.00/97.12 call condors, 0.75 ref 96.41
- 5,000 SFRH6 96.00/96.12 put spds, 1.25
- +3,000 SFRH6 96.00 puts, 5.0 vs. 96.435/0.05
- +8,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25/96.31/96.37 call condors, 2.0 ref 96.195
- Block/pit, over 10,250 SFRZ5 96.37/96.68 1x2 call spds, cab net ref 96.1925
- +8,000 SFRZ5 96.75 calls, cab ref 96.15
- +3,000 SFRZ5 96.37/96.68 1x2 call spds, cab ref 96.1975
- +18,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25/96.31 call flys, 0.5 ref 96.1975
- -2,000 0QZ5/SFRZ6 96.87/97.25 strangle spd 42.5 net/Red Dec over
- 17,000 0QG5 97.12 calls ref 96.94
- Block, 3,000 0QZ5 97.50/97.62 call spds 0.5 ref 96.915
- over 10,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds, 0.25 ref 96.19
- 1,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.12/96.31 broken put flys vs. 0QZ5 96.50/96.75 put spds
- 1,500 0QH6 96.37/96.50/96.75 broken put flys
- +1,000 0QZ5 96.50/96.75 put spd vs. 2QZ5 96.43/96.68 put spd, 0.0 net flattener
- 1,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.31/96.44 2x3x1 put flys ref 96.1875
- 6,500 SFRF6 96.43 calls ref 96.41
- 1,000 SFRH6 96.37/96.50/96.62/96.75 call condors ref 96.41
- 6,000 SFRZ5 96.31 calls, ref 96.1875
- Treasury Options: Reminder, Dec Tsy options expire Friday
- 15,000 USH6 117/119/122 broken call flys
- 2,000 FVF6 109/109.25 put spds
- 20,000 FVF6 111/111.5/112 call trees ref 109-13.5
- 4,500 TYZ5 114/114.5 call spds, 1 ref 112-28
- 3,100 TYH6 114 calls ref 112-26
- 14,000 Thu wkly TY 112.25/112.50 put spds
- 1,000 TYZ5 113/113.5 2x3 call spds