AMERICAS OIL: Americas End of Day Oil Summary: WTI Down 1.4% on Week
Dec-19 19:43
Oil prices are ticking up further today after a recovery earlier this week amid concern that the US could introduce further Russia sanctions. The overall trend remains lower, down around 1.4% on the week, with ongoing concerns of a 2026 supply glut while the impact of geopolitical events for now appear short lived.
- WTI JAN 26 up 0.9% at 56.66$/bbl
- Bajer Hughes US rig count: Oil: 406 (-8) - down 77 rigs, or 15.9% on the year. This is the lowest since Sep. 2021
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Dec. 19 that nothing will impede US enforcement of sanctions in the Caribbean.
- Hyperion, a tanker sanctioned by the US for transporting Russian oil, is on track to test President Trump’s blockade: Bloomberg
- US President Donald Trump said he believes Ukraine peace talks in are "getting close to something" ahead of a US-Russian meeting this weekend.
- Putin told his annual press conference on Friday that Russia does not believe Ukraine is ready for peace talks.
- WTI is expected to average $52/bbl next year, Goldman Sachs said.
- North Dakota’s oil produced 1.168m b/d of oil in October, the state said.
- Brazilian state oil company Petrobras said its oil and gas production has not been affected by an ongoing strike, Platts reported.
- Ecuador’s oil industry is facing a structural crisis, BNamericas said.
- Diesel cracks are weaker today, extending the downtrend lower so far this month as refining runs have recovered while Russian diesel is still finding buyers despite US sanctions.
- US ULSD crack down 0.8$/bbl at 32.58$/bbl
- ULSD JAN 26 down 0.3% at 2.12$/gal
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US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Projected Cut Pricing Cools
Nov-19 19:42
Underlying futures mixed, short end weaker after FOMC minutes from the Oct meeting revealed tepid support for Dec cut. In turn - projected rate cut pricing recedes from this morning's levels (*): Dec'25 at -7bp (-12bp), Jan'26 at -20.1bp (-22.1bp), Mar'26 at -30.3bp (-33.4bp), Apr'26 at -38.1bp (-41.1bp). Some large SOFR midcurve call spread selling late after call condor buying midday -hedging an additional 25-50bp in rate cuts from March-June 2026:
- SOFR Options:
- -50,000 0QZ5 97.00/97.25 call spds, 4.25-4.0 ref 96.915
- +10,000 SFRF6/SFRG6 95.93/96.06/96.18 put fly spd, 1.25 net/Feb over
- Update, appr +40,000 SFRM6 96.75/97.12/97.25/97.62 call condors, 5.5-5.75 ref 96.665
- Update, over +20,000 SFRH6 96.50/96.62/97.00/97.12 call condors, 0.75 ref 96.41
- 5,000 SFRH6 96.00/96.12 put spds, 1.25
- +3,000 SFRH6 96.00 puts, 5.0 vs. 96.435/0.05
- +8,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25/96.31/96.37 call condors, 2.0 ref 96.195
- Block/pit, over 10,250 SFRZ5 96.37/96.68 1x2 call spds, cab net ref 96.1925
- +8,000 SFRZ5 96.75 calls, cab ref 96.15
- +3,000 SFRZ5 96.37/96.68 1x2 call spds, cab ref 96.1975
- +18,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25/96.31 call flys, 0.5 ref 96.1975
- -2,000 0QZ5/SFRZ6 96.87/97.25 strangle spd 42.5 net/Red Dec over
- 17,000 0QG5 97.12 calls ref 96.94
- Block, 3,000 0QZ5 97.50/97.62 call spds 0.5 ref 96.915
- over 10,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds, 0.25 ref 96.19
- 1,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.12/96.31 broken put flys vs. 0QZ5 96.50/96.75 put spds
- 1,500 0QH6 96.37/96.50/96.75 broken put flys
- +1,000 0QZ5 96.50/96.75 put spd vs. 2QZ5 96.43/96.68 put spd, 0.0 net flattener
- 1,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.31/96.44 2x3x1 put flys ref 96.1875
- 6,500 SFRF6 96.43 calls ref 96.41
- 1,000 SFRH6 96.37/96.50/96.62/96.75 call condors ref 96.41
- 6,000 SFRZ5 96.31 calls, ref 96.1875
- Treasury Options: Reminder, Dec Tsy options expire Friday
- 15,000 USH6 117/119/122 broken call flys
- 2,000 FVF6 109/109.25 put spds
- 20,000 FVF6 111/111.5/112 call trees ref 109-13.5
- 4,500 TYZ5 114/114.5 call spds, 1 ref 112-28
- 3,100 TYH6 114 calls ref 112-26
- 14,000 Thu wkly TY 112.25/112.50 put spds
- 1,000 TYZ5 113/113.5 2x3 call spds
SOFR OPTIONS: Scale Seller Dec'25 SOFR Midcurve Call Spread
Nov-19 19:35
- -50,000 0QZ5 97.00/97.25 call spds, 4.25-4.0 ref 96.915
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Remain Mixed, Focus Still on Nvidia Earnings
Nov-19 19:30
- US equity indexes held inside session ranges late Wednesday, the DJIA underperforming as it looked to extend session lows. Markets still digesting the October FOMC minutes release that showed rate cut opinions "strongly differed". Participants await the release of Nvidia Q3 earnings after the close.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down down 144.48 points (-0.31%) at 45946.4, S&P E-Minis down 6.5 points (-0.1%) at 6632.75, Nasdaq up 24.7 points (0.1%) at 22456.95.
- Communication Services and Information Technology sector shares continued to lead advances in the second half, media & entertainment stocks buoyed the former: Alphabet +3.33%, TKO Group Holdings +1.92%, Take-Two Interactive Software +1.51% and Match Group +0.38%.
- Chip makers primarily supported the tech sector: ON Semiconductor +3.99%, KLA Corp +3.20%, Applied Materials +3.20%, Lam Research +2.99%, Broadcom +2.35%, Seagate Technology +1.87% and NVIDIA +1.83%
- Conversely, Energy and Consumer Staples sector shares continued to underperform, a drop in crude prices (WTI -1.30 at 59.44) weighing on oil and gas stocks: Valero Energy -2.77%, APA -2.73%, EOG Resources -2.58%, Phillips 66 -2.37% and Occidental Petroleum -2.25%.
- Meanwhile, broadline retailers weighed on the Consumer Staples sector: Archer-Daniels-Midland -5.80%, Bunge Global -3.51%, Target -2.78%, Dollar General -2.15% and Estee Lauder Cos -1.92%.
