AMERICAS OIL: Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower
US OIL: October 2 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower
WTI crude has fallen to its lowest since June amid oversupply concerns ahead of OPEC’s Sunday meeting. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. The key resistance is at $68.43, the Jul 30 high, where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. The clear reversal lower refocuses attention on key support at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. A break of this level would reinstate the downtrend.
- The Colonial Pipeline had an outage on all three of its main delivery lines that began at 5 am. Operations restarted around noon EDT. Line 1 transports 1.5 mb/d of gasoline while Line 2 carries distillates.
- Following the G7 finance ministers meeting, an agreement on substantial additional sanctions on Russia’s means to finance its war in Ukraine is close, Bloomberg said. The group has also decided on more assistance for Ukraine.
- WSJ report that the US would give Ukraine intelligence to support its strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and also encouraged NATO to do the same.
- OPEC is expected to continue to unwind previous output reductions when it meets on Oct. 5. It increased the October target by 137kb/d and at least that amount is likely in November although with conflicting reports on the size of a potential hike.
- Aramco will be under pressure to cut its November OSPs for European buyers, as medium sour supply continues to outpace regional demand, Argus reports.
- Stockpiling demand from China has underpinned oil prices but the rate is expected to slow next year with refiners wary of sanctions for buying Iranian and Russian oil, Rystad said.
- WTI futures have pulled back from their recent highs. This reinforces a bearish theme and suggests S/T gains are corrective. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. The key resistance is at $68.43, the Jul 30 high, where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. The clear reversal lower refocuses attention on key support at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. A break of this level would reinstate the downtrend.
- Oil product cracks have fallen after briefly reversing some of the day’s losses on the outage at the Colonial Pipeline, which has restarted.
- WTI Nov futures were down 2.1% at $60.48
- WTI Dec futures were down 2% at $60.17
- RBOB Nov futures were down 1.8% at $1.85
- ULSD Nov futures were down 2.5% at $2.24
- US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 17.23$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 1.2$/bbl at 33.75/bbl
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US: President Trump To Make 'Space HQ' Announcement Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to appear in the Oval Office to announce that US Space Command will be relocated from Colorado to Alabama, reversing a decision from former President Joe Biden not to move the command. LIVESTREAM
- Politico notes: "The decision ends a bitter yearslong turf war between Alabama and Colorado leaders over the best home for the unit. Each side argued the other benefited from politically motivated decisions by either Trump or Biden to reward states that voted for them."
- The Oval Office announcement is Trump's first public appearance since a Cabinet meeting last Tuesday. Trump's light schedule since that meeting has fueled social media speculation over his health, despite several trips to his golf course in Virginia and a regular stream of Truth Social posts.
- The announcement is likely to be accompanied by ad hoc remarks to the press on a range of issues. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Washington Examiner yesterday that Trump may declare a 'national housing emergency' this fall to address rising house prices – a ‘core issue’ for the Trump administration in the coming months.
- Bessent told Fox News in a separate interview that “all options are on the table” for further sanctions on Russia, after Trump’s first deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to make progress on peace talks with Ukraine passed yesterday.
USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Resistance
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 148.79/149.12 Intraday high / 61.8% of Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- PRICE: 148.12 @ 16:09 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
- SUP 4: 145.19 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low
USDJPY traded higher Tuesday but for now, remains inside its range. Resistance to watch is 148.78, the Aug 22 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a range breakout and a stronger bullish theme. This would also undermine the recent bear threat. A breach would open 149.12, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger lies at 146.21, Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started in August.
EURGBP TECHS: Clears Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 0.8728 76.4% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8709 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.8708 @ 16:08 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 0.8625/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
EURGBP traded higher Tuesday. This has resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8674, the Aug 25 and 29 high. The break signals a stronger reversal and suggests scope for climb towards 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Key support to watch lies at support at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would instead confirm a resumption of the recent bearish threat.
