AMERICAS OIL: Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower
US OIL: September 18 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower
WTI crude has fallen to the lowest intraday since Sep 16 after Bloomberg reporting signaled the EC may be more focused on targeting Russian LNG in its latest sanctions package. The Conference Board reported the Leading Economic Index fell 0.5% to 98.4 in August. The market is weighing Russian supply risks amid Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure and any potential sanctions against oversupply concerns.
- The EC is considering including a provision in its new sanctions package that would phase out imports of all Russian LNG earlier than the end of 2027, which was the EU’s initial plan. The commission’s focus is turning to Russian LNG, with many EU countries reluctant to hit India and China with tariffs for purchases of Russian oil.
- The EU’s 19th sanctions package against Russia could come as soon as Friday according to Bloomberg sources.
- President Trump and President Xi will hold a call tomorrow at 9am ET. Trump has said he ‘may’ extend a trade truce between the two countries.
- Russia’s weekly seaborne crude shipments fell by 934kb/d in the week to Sep. 14 to 3.18mb/d driven by a drop in Baltic loadings amid drone strike on regional facilities, according to Bloomberg.
- Russia has increased its planned September oil loadings from the Baltic Port of Ust-Luga and the Black Sea’s Novorossiisk Reuters sources said. It comes following disruptions at Primorsk following last month’s Ukrainian drone attack.
- Marathon reports planned flare event at its 265k b/d Carson Refinery from late September to early October at its 365k b/d Carson refinery in California, according to a South Coast Air Quality Management District filing
- Gasoline cracks are slightly lower today, while diesel cracks are off earlier lows amid Russian refinery disruption.
- MNI: Impact for Russian Energy as Drone Strikes Persist: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Impact_for_Russian_Energy_as_Drone_Strikes_Persist_26a70caa2e.pdf
- WTI Oct futures were down 0.7% at $63.57
- WTI Nov futures were down 0.7% at $63.26
- RBOB Oct futures were down 0.8% at $2.01
- ULSD Oct futures were down 0.6% at $2.34
- US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 20.93$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 34.68/bbl
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Historical bullets
USDJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 148.52 High Aug 12
- PRICE: 147.73 @ 16:30 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.51 100-dma
- SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement Apr - Aug Upleg
USDJPY is in consolidation mode. A bearish threat remains present and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal from Aug 1. This would open 144.63, a trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of it would be viewed as a S/T bull signal.
US: CORRECTION FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage retreats to $22.344B this afternoon (lowest since April 5, 2021) from $38.240B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 29.
EURGBP TECHS: Has Breached Support
- RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28
- RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8
- RES 1: 0.8652 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8648 @ 15:57 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
Recent weakness in EURGBP resulted in a breach of key support at 0.8611, the Jul 31 low, and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.8616. A continuation lower would strengthen a bearish threat and highlight a stronger reversal of the uptrend between May 29 and Jul 28. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bulls, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high.
