AMERICAS OIL: Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Higher
Oct-03 18:35
US OIL: October 3 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Higher
WTI crude prices regained some ground amid rising tensions in the Middle East, although are still on track for a net decline on the week, with OPEC expected to raise output at its Sunday meeting. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.
- An explosion and fire occurred at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery near LA late Oct. 2, affecting the isomax unit, which produces jet fuel from heavy gasoil. This is temporarily bullish for jet fuel on the West Coast.
- Baker Hughes US rigs: Oil: 422 (-2) - down 57 rigs, or 11.9% on the year.
- President Trump has said in a Truth Social post that if an agreement is not reached with Hamas by 6pm ET on Sunday, all hell will break out against Hamas.
- OPEC, which meets on Sunday, increased the October target by 137kb/d and at least that amount is likely in November although with conflicting reports on the size of a potential hike of up to 500kb/d.
- OPEC crude output rose by 400k b/d in September as the group formally completed the unwinding of 2.2m b/d of cuts, Bloomberg reports.
- Aramco will be under pressure to cut its November OSPs for European buyers, as medium sour supply continues to outpace regional demand, Argus reports.
- Russia’s ability to divert crude to the global market is diminishing as crude export capacity has fallen after recent refinery attacks, according to Bloomberg.
- JPMorgan maintains a $61/bbl Brent price forecast for Q4 as the bank sees September as a turning point, with the market now heading towards a ‘sizeable surplus.’
- WTI futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Yesterday's sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $57.50, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.
- Cracks have diverged as the market assesses the impact of refinery disruption in the US and Russia, though are generally facing some pressure from slightly higher crude pricing.
- WTI Nov futures were up 0.6% at $60.88
- WTI Dec futures were up 0.6% at $60.50
- RBOB Nov futures were up 0.4% at $1.86
- ULSD Nov futures were down 0.3% at $2.24
- US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 17.22$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.6$/bbl at 33.11/bbl
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COMMODITIES: Gold Hits Another All-Time High, Silver Rallies, Crude Pulls Back
Sep-03 18:32
- Spot gold has rallied by a further 1.2% to a fresh all-time high at $3,578/oz today, with the yellow metal now up by ~8% from the August 20 low.
- Spot is on track for its longest streak of daily higher highs since 2022, which was only previously surpassed in 2017.
- The recent rally has been spurred by fresh concerns around Fed independence amid the ongoing Governor Cook saga and mounting fears around fiscal pressures.
- Gold remains in a clear bull cycle, with this week’s gains confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
- The next objective is the $3,600.00 handle, followed by $3,623.1, a Fibonacci projection.
- Meanwhile, silver has also rallied by 1.2% to $41.4/oz today, taking total gains since Aug 20 to around 12%.
- Trend signals in silver remain bullish, with the precious metal piercing resistance at $41.064, the 1.764 projection of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing, today. Above here, sights are on round number resistance at the $42.0 handle next.
- Elsewhere, crude has come under pressure on Wednesday after OPEC+ said it was considering further voluntary cut rollbacks at its upcoming weekend meeting.
- WTI Oct 25 is down by 2.6% at $63.9/bbl.
- A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact, with initial support seen at $61.29, the Aug 13 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Pierces Resistance
Sep-03 18:30
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.14/149.12 High Sep 3 / 61.8% of Aug 1 - 14 bear leg
- PRICE: 148.04 @ 16:41 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: 147.12/146.21 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
- SUP 4: 145.19 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low
USDJPY traded higher Tuesday. For now, the pair remains inside its range and resistance to watch is 148.78, the Aug 22 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a range breakout and a stronger bullish theme. This would also undermine the recent bear threat, and open 149.12, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger lies at 146.21, Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started in August.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Over $17B to Price Wednesday
Sep-03 18:06
$17.05B to price Wednesday - well off Tuesday's record high of $50.95B, with details from a handful of names yet to announce:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 09/03 $2B *AIIB 3Y SOFR+31
- 09/03 $1.5B *OKB 5Y SOFR+43
- 09/03 $1.4B #Dow Chemical $750M +5Y +115, $650M +10Y +145
- 09/03 $1.25B #Plains All American $700M +5Y +105, $550M +10Y +142
- 09/03 $1.2B Clarios 7NC3 6.75%
- 09/03 $1.1B *PTT Global Chem $600M PerpNC5.25 6.5%, $500M PerpNC10 7.125
- 09/03 $1.05B #PECO Energy $525M each: 10Y +68, 30Y +75
- 09/03 $1B #Suzano Netherlands +10Y +145
- 09/03 $850M #Nordea Bank Perp Nov'33 6.75%
- 09/03 $850M #Southern Co Gas $425M 3Y +52, $425M 10Y +93
- 09/03 $800M #F&G Global $500M 3Y +108, $300M 3Y SOFR+132.5
- 09/03 $750M #Pacific Life 30Y +105
- 09/03 $600M *Commercial Bank (PSQC) 5Y +100
- 09/03 $500M #BNY Mellon PerpNC5 5.95%
- 09/03 $600M Tallgrass Energy 8.5NC3.5 6.75%
- 09/03 $600M Cleveland-Cliffs 8.25NC3.25 7.75%
- 09/03 $500M #Colburn 10Y +120
- 09/03 $500M Lithia Motors 5NC2 5.625%
- 09/03 $500M OneMain Finance 7.5NC3 6.5%
- 09/03 $500M Century Comm 8NC3 6.875%
- 09/03 $Benchmark Swedish Export Credit 5Y SOFR+51
- 09/03 $500M #Blackstone Private Credit 5Y +160
- 09/03 $Benchmark Petrobras Global +5Y 5.4%, +10Y 6.6%
- 09/03 $Benchmark Turkie Wealth Fund +5Y 7.625%a, 10Y 8.735%a
- 09/03 $Benchmark Sumitomo Life Insurance 30NC10 5.875%
