US: Americans Divided Over Role Of Govt As GOP Struggles To Finalise Legislation

Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter, dove) pushes the uncertainty angle under US trade policy in an appearance on public radio. 

• "You just tell us what the conditions are going to be, and then we'll figure out what jacket to put on, right? And the thing is, now what jacket to put on is not clear”.
• He also noted that some Trump administration policymakers are saying that tariffs are not going to last and some saying tariffs will be put in place forever.
• Goolsbee said Trump's tariff increases have been "way bigger" than expected and he is not waiting for the hard data to come in and has spent time talking to consumers and firms in his region.
• "The anxiety I hear the most is this. We just lived through and learned what happens when the supply chain gets disrupted all through Covid. And we just lived through and learned what happens when inflation is raging out of control in '21 and '22. The anxiety is this is going to take us back to a thing we spent the last five years desperately trying to get away from, and is this just going to put us back where the lessons we never wanted to learn become super relevant again?"
• “We can’t really wait to the end of the quarter plus one month before we find out that investment really dropped off and GDP growth is shrinking, and we start seeing layoffs, unemployment, or on the other side, inflation starts soaring,”

Goolsbee had sounded his most hawkish in quite some time yesterday in a separate appearance: 

• “The anxiety is if these tariffs are as big as what are threatened on the US side, and if there’s massive retaliation, and then if there’s counter retaliation again, it might send us back to the kind of conditions that we saw in ‘21 and ‘22, when inflation’s raging out of control,”

• AFP reports that Italian PM Meloni will meet US President Trump on Apr 17.
• They quote her as: “"This is the negotiation that must see us all engaged and at all levels... and that involves me, who will be in Washington on April 17 and obviously I intend to address this issue with the US president,"”
• Bloomberg had previously touted Apr 16. See our broader political risk team's post after the Bloomberg report earlier, here.
• It sees a visit two days after part of potential retaliatory EU tariffs are placed on US imports.

• Still weaker, Treasury futures pare move off low after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CMW8) tails 2.4bp tail, drawing 3.784% high yield vs. 3.760% WI; 2.47x bid-to-cover vs. 2.70x prior.
• Peripheral stats see indirect take-up climb to 73.03% vs. 62.5% prior; direct bidder take-up 6.24% from 26.0% prior; primary dealer take-up 20.73% vs. 11.5% prior.
• The next 3Y auction is tentatively scheduled for May 5.