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The average Regional Fed prices paid indices rose to fresh 25-month highs in April, representing levels historically consistent with ISM Services Prices Paid in the low/mid 60s (was 60.9 in March, after 62.6 in February). There is no consensus yet but we would be unsurprised to see an uptick in the ISM gauge, which is released on Monday.

• This reflected upticks in the Philadelphia and Dallas indices, with the NY Fed's dipping slightly (not included is the Richmond Fed's which uses a different methodology for prices, and also saw a pullback from elevated Feb/Mar readings).
• Note that expectations for future prices continue to rise though this isn't reflected in the ISM gauge.

• RES 4: 147.05 50-day EMA   
• RES 3: 146.54 Low Mar 11  
• RES 2: 144.24 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 144.03 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 142.18 @ 16:23 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 141.49 Low Apr 23   
• SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07  Low Jul 28 ‘23

The recovery that started Apr 22 in USDJPY is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.24, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 147.05. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.

The five Regional Fed services surveys for April (NY, Dallas, KC, Philadelphia, Richmond) combined point to a continued deterioration in the ISM Services barometer when it is published on Monday May 5.

• Current expectations are for a tick lower in ISM services to 50.4 in April from 50.8 prior. That would mark a fresh post-June 2024 low.
• The regional Fed average for current conditions fell to the lowest since May 2020 in April, pointing to potential downside in ISM Services vs consensus (at the time, the ISM index was printing in the 40s.) Four of the five surveys (KC excepted) saw a deterioration of conditions in April vs March.
• This is likewise the lowest that service firms' forward expectations have been since May 2020, per the regional Fed average.