EU CREDIT HEADLINE: Amcor: FY25 Results Headlines
Aug-14 09:40
(AMCR; Baa2/BBB/BBB+) "*AMCOR FY ADJ EPS 71.2C, EST. 72.3C" "*AMCOR SEES 2026 ADJ FREE CASH FLOW A...
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GILTS: Firmer & Flatter, Mansion House Eyed After U.S. CPI
Jul-15 09:38
Core global FI markets have rallied this morning, curves flattening, pointing to lightening up of existing shorts & curve steepeners ahead of U.S. CPI data.
- Gilt futures +30 at 92.13 last, nearing initial resistance at 92.19, which protects the 20-day EMA (92.29). Bears remain in technical control.
- Yields 1-4bp lower, curve flatter.
- There hasn’t been much in the way of fresh headline cues, even alongside a burst of demand for bonds around the middle of the London morning.
- FT reports suggesting that U.S. President Trump privately encouraged Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to strike Moscow if possible (on July 4) provided some background support in more recent trade, although the bulk of the move happened before those headlines crossed.
- Elsewhere, the OBR reaffirmed that shifts in the bond buyer base and unexpected shocks present ongoing risks to the UK government bond market.
- This morning’s GBP1bln PGT of the 4.25% Jun-32 gilt was well received, with infrequency of primary supply and limited size helping generate solid demand and firm pricing metrics.
- BoE-dated OIS little changed on the day, showing ~57bp of cuts through year-end. A reminder that a particularly soft REC labour market report and dovish comments from BoE Governor Bailey resulted in dovish repricing on Monday.
- Note that Chancellor Reeves will appear twice today, more prominently this evening, at the Mansion House event. BoE Governor Bailey will also speak at that event (21:00).
- Meanwhile, CPI (Wednesday) and labour market (Thursday) data headline this week’s domestic calendar.
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: 1.90% Sep-27 Schatz
Jul-15 09:33
| 1.90% Sep-27 Schatz* | Previous | |
| ISIN | DE000BU22106 | DE000BU22098 |
| Total sold | E5bln | E4bln |
| Allotted | E3.899bln | E3.066bln |
| Avg yield | 1.87% | 1.85% |
| Bid-to-offer | 1.81x | 2.24x |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.33x | 2.92x |
| Avg Price | 100.064 | 99.712 |
| Low Price | 100.060 | 99.710 |
| Pre-auction mid | 99.705 | |
| Previous date | 24-Jun-25 |
EGBS: German Curve Bull Flattens; French Budget Eyed This Afternoon
Jul-15 09:24
Bund futures are up 45 ticks today at 129.63, but remain below initial resistance at 130.06 (20-day EMA). That keeps a bearish theme intact, with support to monitor at 129.08 (July 14 low). Market moving headline flow has been relatively light, with no obvious trigger for today’s strength in major EGB futures.
- The German curve has bear flattened, with 30-year yields down 4.5bps at 3.197%. A reminder that 30-year yields met resistance at the April 2023 high of 3.263% yesterday.
- Germany will sell E5bln of the new 1.90% Sep-27 Schatz at 1030BST today.
- At 1500BST/1600CET, French PM Bayrou is set to unveil the main proposals of the 2026 state budget, including spending cuts and tax hikes that risk collapsing his minority government. French political risks gradually been priced back into OATs in recent weeks, particularly when assessing French debt against semi-core/periphery peers.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are within 0.5bps of yesterday’s closing levels.
- Eurozone industrial production was much stronger-than-expected in May, with volatile Irish data once again a likely culprit. On a monthly SA basis, production rose 1.7% M/M, above the 1.0% consensus and April’s -2.2% (revised up from -2.4% initial).
- Meanwhile, the German July ZEW survey was also stronger-than-expected.
- Global macro focus remains on today’s US CPI report.
