EU: Ambassadors Approve E150B SAFE Loans, Moves To Ministerial Sign-Off

May-21 11:27

As noted earlier, member state permanent representatives to the EU have approved the plan E150B Security Action For Europe (SAFE) loans, which is a pillar of the European Commission's ReArm Europe programme intended to allow member states to bolster their armed forces and defence capabilities. EU Affairs ministers will now need to give final signed off at the General Affairs Council meeting on 27 May, which is seen largely as a formality. Politico reports "Two of the diplomats said that Hungary abstained, but since the regulation was adopted with qualified majority Budapest wasn't able to block the initiative."

  • The Commission faces the prospect of being sued by the European Parliament for using Art. 122 of the TFEU to bypass a vote among MEPs on the loans. The clause has previously been used in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and in the immediate aftermath of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but the Parliament's Judiciary Committee ruled this utilisation was unjustified.
  • In line with MNI's reporting from 15 May, Politico claims that the final draft of SAFE text "also makes the participation of non-member subcontractors easier. It now says that "common procurement involving subcontractors" that are allocated between 15 percent and 35 percent of the value of the contract and "that are not established or don’t have their executive management structures" in the EU, or in one of its partners like Norway and Ukraine, "should be eligible." A separate EU-UK agreement will be required allow British firms to participate. 

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: Extending Lows

Apr-21 11:11
  • Futures extending lows again, sellers meet limited buy interest, low overall volumes volumes at Jun'25 10Y trades down to 110-30 (-7.5), total volume just over 151k. 10Y yield climbs to 4.3676% (+.0427).
  • Initial Technical support below at 110-15/109-08 (Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger); Continued weakness would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.

LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Chicago Fed Goolsbee, Leading Index, Tsy Bills

Apr-21 11:05
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 21-Apr 0830 Chicago Fed Goolsbee interview on CNBC
  • 21-Apr 1000 Leading Index (-0.3%, -0.5%)
  • 21-Apr 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions

US TSYS: Curves Twist Steeper, Bonds Under Pressure

Apr-21 10:54
  • US markets returning from Easter holiday to Treasury curves twisting steeper, bonds under pressure on lighter volumes as European markets remain closed for Easter Monday.
  • Currently, Jun'25 2Y & 5Y contracts trade +1-2, 10Y -3.5 at 111-02, 30Y bond -20 at 113-30. 10Y yield +.0291 at 4.3540%.
  • Wires continue to report Pres Trump's wishes to interfere with the independent Federal Reserve by sacking Fed Chairman Powell, not to mention ongoing tariff related headlines.
  • Initial technical support for TYM5 below at 110-15/109-08 (Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger). Resistance at 111-17+ (High Apr 16). Volume in 10s just under 130k.
  • Cross asset update: US$ falls to early Jan '24 levels, BBG $ index -9.6 at 1215.08; Gold climbs to new intra-day all-time high of 3397.75; stocks weaker SPX eminis -53.50 at 5259.25.
  • Limited data today: Leading index at 1000ET, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee interview on CNBC at 0830ET. Tsy bill auctions at 1130ET: $76B 13W & $68B 26W bills.