TURKEY: Ambassador Discusses Bilateral Ties, Regional Issues With US Senator

Recent repricing in EUR STIRs will have altered the balance of risks ahead of next week’s heavy regional calendar. December flash PMIs are due on Tuesday, while the ECB decision (including updated macroeconomic projections) comes on Thursday. Markets should be most focused on the ECB’s core inflation projections for 2026 and 2027. In September, the ECB projected core at 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. If an core undershoot is retained in the December forecast round, balanced commentary from Lagarde (i.e. remaining cognizant of inflation risks in either direction) could temper building expectations for a hike as soon as December 2026. 

• ECB-dated OIS currently price 7.5bps of hikes through the end of next year, compared to 8bps of cuts just two weeks ago. ECB Schnabel’s interview with Bloomberg yesterday morning didn’t contain many surprises given her characteristically hawkish lean, but it added to hawkish signals from improving regional growth and sticky inflation/wage data in recent weeks.
• As noted through the past week, the bulk of repricing has occurred at the back-end of the Euribor strip. 2029 Euribor implied yields are now higher than on March 7, which was the knee-jerk high following Germany’s initial fiscal expansion announcement. 

• RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.4051 High Nov 28 
• RES 2: 1.3939/3984 Low Nov 28 / 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3888 Low Oct 29  
• PRICE: 1.3855 @ 08:03 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 1.3800 Low Dec 08
• SUP 2: 1.3769 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Sep17 
• SUP 4: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle  

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and last Friday’s strong sell-off reinforced current conditions. The pair has breached an important support at 1.3950, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The break highlights a stronger bear cycle and signals scope for an extension towards 1.3769 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3984, 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24   
• RES 3: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 0.6660 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 0.6649 High Dec 5 & 8
• PRICE: 0.6638 @ 07:57 GMT Dec 9 
• SUP 1: 0.6580/6551 High Nov 13 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6517 Low Nov 27 
• SUP 3: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21 
• SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 

A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. The pair has also printed 10 consecutive sessions of higher highs. 0.6640, 76.4% of the Sep 17 - Nov 21 bear leg, has been pierced This opens 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and key resistance. Key support to watch is at 0.6551, 20-day EMA.