EU FINANCIALS: Allianz (ALVGR: Aa2/AA/AA-) - Capital markets day

Dec-10 07:41

Not a great deal of detail or excitement from Allianz CMD. Targets are more of the same, which remains healthy growth. Not much on solvency, liquidity or issuance targets, which make us think it will be more of the same. Which is just fine.

Property-Casualty (P/C)

4-6% CAGR - 2027: Operating profit growth is validated across geographies and product segments, focusing on maintaining a diversified portfolio.

Key Drivers:

  • Enhanced claims and pricing strategies.
  • Expansion in retail and direct-to-customer segments.
  • Leveraging advanced analytics to optimize underwriting and claims management.

Life-Health (L/H)

3-5% CAGR - 2027: Margin improvement driven by capital-efficient products and leveraging demographic trends.

Key Drivers:

  • Development of tailored retirement products for aging populations.
  • Value-driven health insurance offerings.
  • Investments in digital tools and customer engagement for personalized services.

Asset Management (AM)

5-7% CAGR - 2027: Operating profit growth supported by active fixed income strategies and diversified investment opportunities.

Key Drivers:

  • Expansion of PIMCO's public and private investment offerings.
  • Resilient profit margins maintained despite market volatility.
  • Integration of origination capabilities and advanced risk management to enhance client returns.

Historical bullets

JGB TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Reverses

Nov-08 23:45
  • RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
  • RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)  
  • RES 1: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
  • PRICE: 143.70 @ 16:14 GMT Nov 08
  • SUP 1: 143.39 - Low Nov 07
  • SUP 2: 142.23 - Low Jul 02
  • SUP 3: 140.21 - 1.236 proj of Mar 22 - Nov 1 ‘23 - Jan 15 price swing    

Prices fell further Thursday, extending the recent pullback. The return lower at the start of this week has culminated in a break of 143.57, marking both the Jul 17 high on the continuation contract as well as the Oct 22 low. For now, the 50-dma tops out at 144.32, and marks first resistance. A continuation higher would open 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont) and a bull trigger. 

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Late 2Y/10Y Ultra-Bond Flattener

Nov-08 22:48
  • Flattener crossed late Friday at 1645:30ET, DV01 $322,000
  • -8,900 TUZ4 102-23.88, sell through 102-24.38 post time bid vs.
  • +3,700 UXYZ4 113-16, post time offer 

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

Nov-08 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.4179 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
  • RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance  
  • RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
  • PRICE: 1.3910 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 8
  • SUP 1: 1.3836/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6 
  • SUP 2: 1.3744 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8 
  • SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7

USDCAD reversed course Wednesday and recovered from Tuesday's low. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bullish. Attention is the key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. This hurdle has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3836, the 20-day EMA.