EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Alinma Bank: FV for $ 500mnWNG PNC5.5 AT1 Sukuk

Aug-27 07:34

(ALINMA; A2/A-/A-)

IPT @ 6.75% area             FV @ 6.30% area

  • Our FV considerations show z+290bp (or 6.30% yield area) for Saudi Arabia’s Alinma Bank proposed $ 500mnWNG AT1 Sukuk deal (PNC5.5), with IPT indicated at 6.75% area (that is z+334bp). We note that the deal size is indicated capped at $ 500mn.
  • When looking for comparables, we focus on recent $ AT1 Sukuk deals, all larger in size, including those of Bank Albilad (ALBIAB; A2/NR/A-) charting at 6.30% (z+288bp, priced back in May at 6.50%), Saudi Awwal Bank (SABBAB; A1/NR/A-) charting at 6.05% (z+262bp, price back in May at 6.50%) and Saudi Investment Bank (SIBCAB; A2/BBB+/A-) charting at 5.99% (z+258bp, priced back in Nov ’24 at 6.375%). We also look at higher rated Al Rajhi Bank (RJHIAB; Aa3/A/A-) charting at 5.85% (z+244bp, priced back in Jan at 6.25%).

Historical bullets

EURIBOR: Some big Volumes in the back Calendar Spreads

Jul-28 07:25
  • We noted some notable early flow in the Blue ERH9/M9 calendar spread, being sold down to 4.5 from a 5.5 record high printed last Week.
  • There's now a whopping 34k ERM7/U7 spread seller, which explains the massive volumes in those expiries.

EGBS: Peripherals Outperform As Equities Rally

Jul-28 07:22

German yields are now 1.5-2.5bp lower across the curve, with the belly & intermediates outperforming.

  • EGB spreads to Bunds are little changed to 1bp tighter, with the periphery outperforming as equities firm in the wake of the U.S.-EU trade deal.
  • Ongoing adjustments to that deal and focus on the Sino-U.S. meeting in Stockholm are noted.

BONDS: Firmer Again

Jul-28 07:17

No fresh headlines as core global FI futures firm and equity index futures tick away from best levels. Bunds close the opening gap lower, while TY futures trade to the highest level seen since Wednesday.

  • Note that Euro Stoxx 50 futures were not able to test early July highs, before a pullback from best levels accelerated around the cash equity open.